Markets pricing 40% chance of September rate hike, Guy LeBas notes

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12.08.2026

Markets pricing 40% chance of September rate hike, Guy LeBas notes — Markets see chance of September rate hike

Guy LeBas points out that markets continue to price a 40 percent chance of a rate hike in September. He highlights the lack of guidance available and notes the uncertainty banks and other institutions face as they hedge ahead of each FOMC meeting.

LeBas also mentions that a new CPI report will arrive before the FOMC decision, adding another layer of unpredictability to rate expectations.

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LeBas recently noted that capital returns have outpaced labor for decades. In another report, he observed that three of the ten largest U.S. corporate bond deals in the past year have financed AI data center initiatives. These observations come as investors weigh the impact of upcoming data and FOMC decisions on market positioning.

This material may contain third-party opinions, none of the data and information on this webpage constitutes investment advice according to our Disclaimer. While we adhere to strict Editorial Integrity, this post may contain references to products from our partners.

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