Market strategy, macro research, and investment analysis by Guy LeBas
Net selling in USD duration and net buying in equities, Guy LeBas notes
A rebalancing model tracked by Guy LeBas indicates net selling in USD duration and simultaneous net buying in equities at the end of the month. LeBas also highlights that the Bloomberg Barclays ...
Guy LeBas: JB Hunt earnings to offer fuel-led inflation insights
JB Hunt is scheduled to report its earnings after the market closes today, an event that may provide insights related to fuel-driven inflation. Guy LeBas commented that the company's results will ...
S&P Biotech index posts one of its worst single-day moves, Guy LeBas notes
Guy LeBas highlights a significant move in the S&P Biotech index, noting a negative shift of two standard deviations. According to LeBas, there have been few days with worse single-day ...
Guy LeBas: September sees increased fixed income buying amid equity selling
Guy LeBas highlights a significant shift in investment flows at month end, with a roughly plus one z-score buying interest in fixed income and corresponding selling in equities today. He points ...
U.S. Treasury auctions proceed without event, Guy LeBas notes
Guy LeBas commented on recent U.S. Treasury auctions, highlighting that the afternoon's 2-year note auction passed uneventfully and that the upcoming 5-year auction is likely to follow a similar ...
Guy LeBas: CPI data may not capture full drug cost changes
Guy LeBas points out that complexities in Consumer Price Index (CPI) data collection can lead to certain costs being overlooked. He explains that while cash drug costs have decreased, the overall ...
CPI falls to lowest in 5 years, Guy LeBas notes
Guy LeBas observes that it has become popular among market strategists to suggest that inflation remains above target due to strong economic growth. However, he points out that consumer price ...
Guy LeBas: July core PCE estimated to rise 0.27 percent month over month
Guy LeBas expects July core personal consumption expenditures (PCE) to increase by 0.27 percent month over month. This projection is based on his analysis using CPI and PPI data, following what he ...
Markets pricing 40% chance of September rate hike, Guy LeBas notes
Guy LeBas points out that markets continue to price a 40 percent chance of a rate hike in September. He highlights the lack of guidance available and notes the uncertainty banks and other ...
Guy LeBas: Three of 10 largest U.S. bond deals fund AI data centers
Guy LeBas highlights that three of the ten largest U.S. corporate bond deals in the past year have been carried out to finance AI data center projects. This trend underscores the growing ...
Returns to capital exceed labor for decades, Guy LeBas notes
Guy LeBas raises the question of whether current justifications for taxing capital remain adequate in light of decades during which returns to capital have exceeded returns to labor. He ...
Guy LeBas: Rebalance model sees neutral fixed income exposure for July
Guy LeBas reports that the month end rebalance model indicates very limited net buying activity in equities and maintains a neutral position on fixed income for July. The update signals an ...
U.S. bond yields at year-to-date highs, Guy LeBas notes
Guy LeBas will join a discussion later today about high nominal and real yields in U.S. bond markets. The session, scheduled for around 2 p.m. ET, will focus on the notable increase in both ...
Guy LeBas: FOMC minutes show hawkish bias and fewer members favoring hike
Guy LeBas highlights that the latest FOMC minutes appeared largely as expected, with a noticeable reduction in length compared to the previous release. He observes that the bias is clearly more ...
Small shifts in equity and fixed income markets highlighted, Guy LeBas notes
Guy LeBas reports that initial analysis of month end portfolio rebalancing shows a mild trend, with only slight equity selling and modest fixed income purchases. The changes are described as ...
Guy LeBas: Pharma sector M&A deal adds more value to acquirer than acquired
Guy LeBas notes that activity in the pharmaceutical sector today has drawn the attention of merger and acquisition bankers worldwide. According to LeBas, the acquiring company in a recent deal ...
Janney hosting 2026 mid-year market update today, Guy LeBas notes
Guy LeBas announces that Janney will hold its 2026 mid-year market update today at 12 p.m. Eastern Time. This session is positioned as a key update for financial markets. Registration details ...
Guy LeBas: Pre-market Thursday hints Wednesday drop followed big gains
Guy LeBas observes that Thursday's pre-market action suggests Wednesday was just a one-day decline that followed significant gains in equities. He adds a note of humility about his own expertise ...
Model evaluates cash and bond value in different inflation terms, Guy LeBas analyzes
Guy LeBas outlines a conceptual approach that compares cash-like instruments to short-term inflation and bond-like instruments to longer-term inflation. This method aims to help identify ...
Guy LeBas: IG credit spreads near 4Q2025 lows in historical context
Guy LeBas observes that investment grade credit spreads have nearly returned to their tightest levels seen in 4Q2025. He points out that these spreads are now in the 8th percentile of all ...
Global interest rates rise on surprise UK bid, Guy LeBas notes
Guy LeBas remarked on market turmoil after the Mayor of Manchester announced a longshot campaign for UK Prime Minister, leading to a spike in worldwide interest rates. LeBas shared a lighthearted ...
