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Guy LeBas: July core PCE estimated to rise 0.27 percent month over month

Guy LeBas: July core PCE estimated to rise 0.27 percent month over month
July core PCE seen rising 0.27 percent

Guy LeBas expects July core personal consumption expenditures (PCE) to increase by 0.27 percent month over month. This projection is based on his analysis using CPI and PPI data, following what he describes as a high portfolio management print in the latest figures.

LeBas previously observed that markets assigned a 40 percent probability to a U.S. rate hike in September, reflecting uncertain policy guidance at the time (link). He has also questioned whether there is a stronger case for taxing capital, noting capital returns have consistently outpaced labor over several decades (link). These views provide additional context for his current PCE projection.

This material may contain third-party opinions, none of the data and information on this webpage constitutes investment advice according to our Disclaimer. While we adhere to strict Editorial Integrity, this post may contain references to products from our partners.

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