Justin Wolfers: U.S. budget deficit at 6 percent of GDP outside recession or war

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04.09.2026

Justin Wolfers: U.S. budget deficit at 6 percent of GDP outside recession or war — U.S. deficit reaches postwar peacetime high

Justin Wolfers highlights that the U.S. budget deficit is currently around 6 percent of GDP, which he describes as the highest in the postwar period outside of wartime or recessions.

Wolfers underscores that this level of borrowing typically occurs only during emergencies, but no such emergency exists, and there is little political will to change direction. While bond markets have already noticed this borrowing scale, Wolfers notes that most voters have not recognized the issue yet.

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Wolfers has previously discussed developments in U.S. economic policy on international platforms, including a British show addressing inflation and the administration's performance. He has also noted shifts in market expectations following economic data, such as the decline in the probability of a September Fed rate hike after jobs data. These observations contribute to his ongoing commentary on fiscal and monetary conditions.

This material may contain third-party opinions, none of the data and information on this webpage constitutes investment advice according to our Disclaimer. While we adhere to strict Editorial Integrity, this post may contain references to products from our partners.

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