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Mark Moss discusses the challenges of predicting the future price of bitcoin. He highlights that, unlike some other assets, bitcoin's fixed supply makes it one of the easiest assets to forecast. Moss notes that the primary uncertainty is estimating future demand.
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Moss has previously discussed the impact of monetary debasement on investment returns. In an earlier analysis, he argued that the investment hurdle rate has risen to nearly 10 percent, citing benchmarks such as the S&P 500 and U.S. home prices here. His focus on macroeconomic factors adds context to his views on bitcoin’s price predictability.