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10 year bond yield at 5% is still under the historical average, Cullen Roche notes

10 year bond yield at 5% is still under the historical average, Cullen Roche notes
10 year yield below historic average

Cullen Roche observes that despite concerns in the bond market, current conditions are influenced by recency bias. He points out that since 1960, the 10 year yield has averaged 5.8%, while today it stands at 5%, which is below the long-term average.

Roche adds that someone who missed the last 20 years might think the bond market had remained largely unchanged throughout this period.

Roche has previously argued that inflation remains the main determinant of bond yields, with both the bond markets and the Federal Reserve closely watching inflation forecasts here. In a separate analysis, he observed that periods of sustained high inflation have an even more negative impact on bonds than current conditions here. These earlier views inform his comments on present bond market sentiment.

This material may contain third-party opinions, none of the data and information on this webpage constitutes investment advice according to our Disclaimer. While we adhere to strict Editorial Integrity, this post may contain references to products from our partners.

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