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Michael Kantro raises concerns about the sustainability of recent market moves.
He points out that multiple indicators, including breadth and P/E ratios, do not align with continued optimism for SPX unless earnings grow at a fast 30-40% rate. Kantro suggests that if such growth does not materialize, SPX price performance could face significant headwinds.
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Kantro has previously noted that economic strength is largely limited to the largest companies and oldest consumers, while other segments have lagged (/news/market-voices/show/3518906-economic-strength-k-shaped/). In an earlier report, he explained that consumer perceptions of low mortgage rates have reached the lowest levels since 1978 due to recency bias (/news/market-voices/show/3489716-mortgage-rate-perception-bias/). These observations provide context for his recent caution on the market outlook.