China manufacturing surplus exceeds $4 trillion, Brad Setser notes

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China's surpluses top $4 trillion

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Yaroslav Dmytrenko

03.10.2026

China manufacturing surplus exceeds $4 trillion, Brad Setser notes — China's surpluses top $4 trillion

Brad Setser highlights China's substantial economic surpluses, citing a manufacturing surplus of over $4 trillion and a customs surplus above $2.5 trillion.

Setser points to sustained 10% growth in China's export volumes and a notable increase in the surplus for manufactured goods as key elements of the country's current economic trajectory.

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Setser has previously noted that China is moving some reserves away from the dollar to agency securities, with formal reserves at 55 percent in earlier observations. He also observed a modest increase in PBOC foreign exchange assets, possibly linked to higher CNY external lending by state-controlled banks, according to recent commentary. These developments accompany China’s ongoing trade and manufacturing surpluses.

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