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Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody's Analytics, said the Federal Reserve is unlikely to raise interest rates at its upcoming meeting and advised against doing so. He argued that the economy is facing a growing list of risks, and a misstep by the Fed represents one of those threats. Zandi noted that his team's risk matrix assesses the likelihood of various risks affecting the economy.
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Zandi has previously estimated that the Iran war has cost the average U.S. household nearly $2,000, reaching a nationwide total of $265 billion according to his analysis. He also highlighted Treasury data showing the U.S. budget deficit for 2026 is projected to approach $2 trillion, more than 6% of GDP in a recent report. These figures reflect ongoing fiscal pressures factoring into his current risk outlook.