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Treasury valuation declines by about $3 trillion since 2020, David Andolfatto notes

Treasury valuation declines by about $3 trillion since 2020, David Andolfatto notes
Treasuries see $3 trillion valuation shift

Treasuries have experienced a shift from trading above par to below par since 2020, resulting in a nearly $3 trillion valuation decline, equivalent to approximately 11% of U.S. GDP.

David Andolfatto stated that while this change is not a precise measure of capital losses, higher interest rates have negatively impacted holders of long-duration debt but benefited investors rolling over short-term debt at higher yields.

Andolfatto recently reported that CPI inflation reached 8.1% annualized on a monthly basis in September 2026. He also noted that the current fiscal situation resembles the early 1980s but with a much higher debt-to-GDP ratio. These observations provide context for the impact of higher rates on Treasury valuations.

This material may contain third-party opinions, none of the data and information on this webpage constitutes investment advice according to our Disclaimer. While we adhere to strict Editorial Integrity, this post may contain references to products from our partners.

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