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Thirty-year Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities (TIPS) are yielding 3.1% above inflation, T-bills pay more than 4%, and the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield is at 5%. U.S. stocks have averaged a 9% annual return over 150 years but are currently trading near record valuations.
Cullen Roche described cash and bonds as cheap upfront but expensive in the long term, while stating that stocks and 60/40 portfolios show the reverse pattern.
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Roche previously noted that CBO data for 2022 show the top 1% of earners paid a 31.5% average federal tax rate and accounted for 27% of all federal taxes, while the bottom 20% paid 1.4% on average (CBO data for 2022). He has also discussed how Harry Markowitz's 1952 development of portfolio selection defined modern asset management (Markowitz portfolio selection theory). Roche’s recent comments add to his ongoing analysis of market structures and policy impacts.