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The trailing 12-month goods trade deficit for the U.S., excluding SI-related goods, is now 1.6% of GDP—its lowest reading in recorded history. Scott Bessent, who has served as 79th U.S. Secretary of the Treasury and is the founder of Key Square Group, noted that while a widening trade deficit has often signaled greater reliance on cheaper foreign consumer goods, the latest data highlights a notable shift.
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Earlier this year, Bessent observed that oil transits through the Strait of Hormuz returned to pre-conflict levels with the exception of Iranian exports, noting Iran's continued reliance on oil shipments. He also reported that the U.S. Treasury reclaimed $175 million in payments that would have been sent to deceased individuals and expanded Do Not Pay access to almost all U.S. agencies. For more, see his analysis of Hormuz oil flows and $175 million in returned payments.