BlackRock reduces position by 12% pressures Nio stock below $4.45 support

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Nio drops 4.5% today to $4.57

Highlights

Nio closed its first flagship showroom and a second location in Germany, and German registrations fell 93.6% in July to three vehicles.
Nio reported 35,934 deliveries in July, rising 71% year on year, and reached 227,000 year-to-date deliveries globally.
Nio stock trades below key moving averages with indicators showing persistent short- and medium-term selling pressure; expected short-term range is $4.45 to $4.84.

Divergent global demand as institutional exits add pressure

Nio has closed its first flagship showroom and a second location in Germany in recent weeks, but maintained that it does not plan to withdraw from Europe, according to Eletric Vehicles. The company’s German car registrations fell sharply in July, down 93.6% with just three new vehicles added, as reported by Scmp, highlighting a pronounced decline in demand within a key European market. Despite these setbacks, Arenaev reported that Nio delivered 35,934 vehicles in July, a 71% year-on-year increase, and reached 227,000 deliveries so far this year, showing robust growth across other markets. Additionally, Eletric Vehicles noted that BlackRock cut its Nio holdings by 12% in the second quarter, contributing to institutional selling pressure.

Mixed technical signals as momentum diverges near oversold zone

On the hourly chart, NIO is trading below MA-20 at $4.70 and MA-50 at $4.74, and also remains under the MA-200 at $5.45 on the daily timeframe. The Ichimoku Kijun at $4.67 sets immediate overhead resistance. MACD signals Strong Buy, contrasting with Neutral readings from ADX and Awesome Oscillator. RSI stands at 31.08, within the Sell range, while both Stoch RSI and CCI are in Oversold territory. Bull/Bear Power also confirms short-term seller dominance, despite moderate session volatility and a brief pullback toward the session high. Divergence among indicator readings suggests early countertrend interest, though momentum has not broadly shifted.

Downside risk prevails as range-bound volatility limits upside

In the short term, NIO is likely to trade between $4.45 and $4.84, reflecting its current volatility band relative to recent levels. The baseline scenario favors continued sideways range behavior, with a 75% probability of a further downward move and a 25% chance of an upward reversal. A break above the $4.67 resistance would risk a short squeeze, while loss of the $4.45 support would reinforce ongoing selling momentum in the near term.

Anton Kharitonov, analyst at Traders Union, sees Nio under sustained pressure as both technicals and fundamentals point to persistent weakness. He notes that the loss of showroom presence in Germany and a drop in local registrations weigh on sentiment, even as overall deliveries grow. Major institutional selling adds to downside risk. "Base case remains sideways or lower for Nio — unless $4.67 is reclaimed, I see no reason to turn optimistic yet."

Earlier, analysts noted that Nio’s technical outlook was mixed, with operational milestones and new institutional interest presenting potential for a near-term shift in trend. The current setup, however, highlights increased selling pressure and persistent weakness, making the $4.67 resistance level pivotal for any potential reversal in the short term.

Source of Data: NIO Price Analysis by TU

The analysis is based on a proprietary model combining technical, on-chain, and expert data. Not investment advice. See methodology

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