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Mykhailo Ihnatenko
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Strategy climbs 38% as Bitcoin rebound strengthens its balance sheet

Strategy climbs 38% as Bitcoin rebound strengthens its balance sheet
Overbought RSI raises pullback risk after the sharp rally.

​Strategy has broken out of a month-long consolidation alongside Bitcoin’s sharp recovery, gaining more than 38% since August 18. At the same time, the company temporarily paused BTC transactions while significantly strengthening its dollar liquidity.

Strategy neither bought nor sold Bitcoin between August 17 and August 23. The company maintained its position at 840,447 BTC, equivalent to roughly 4% of Bitcoin’s maximum supply. Its average purchase price stands at $75,385 per BTC, with a total cost basis of around $63.36 billion. Unrealized gains currently amount to roughly $2.83 billion.

Michael Saylor also used the recent crypto short squeeze as another opportunity to mock bearish traders. He posted a humorous video captioned “Send more ₿ears,” referring to Bitcoin’s sharp recovery following the large-scale liquidation of short positions.

A pullback toward $117 remains the base case scenario

MSTR stock has broken out of its month-long consolidation and gained more than 38% since August 18. The medium-term downtrend, however, has yet to be broken, meaning the current move is still better viewed as a recovery within a broader bearish structure.

The nearest resistance stands at $136.25. A decisive break above this level could open the way toward the 200-day SMA near $142.70, although such a move would likely require further gains in Bitcoin given MSTR’s strong correlation with the underlying asset.

The more likely scenario is for momentum to slow around $136.25, followed by a correction toward the nearest support at $117.

The RSI (14) provides an additional warning after moving into overbought territory. This signal alone does not imply an immediate reversal, but after a gain of more than 38%, it increases the probability of profit-taking.

Bitcoin remains the key driver for the next MSTR move

Strategy’s biggest fundamental strength also remains its greatest risk. As long as Bitcoin trades above the company’s average purchase price, Saylor’s model works almost perfectly: BTC strengthens the balance sheet, the stock gains additional momentum, and the company retains access to capital for further purchases. The problem is that Saylor continues to increase that exposure, making Strategy increasingly dependent on a single asset.

If Bitcoin turns sharply lower again, the same mechanism could begin working in reverse. Unrealized gains could quickly turn into losses, MSTR could come under renewed pressure, and the company’s ability to raise fresh capital could deteriorate significantly.

This material may contain third-party opinions, none of the data and information on this webpage constitutes investment advice according to our Disclaimer. While we adhere to strict Editorial Integrity, this post may contain references to products from our partners.

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