DOW slides around 3.5% as technical weakness persists below key moving averages

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Dow slips 3.56% today to $29.28

Highlights

Dow Inc. reported year-on-year growth in adjusted earnings per share and operating EBITDA for the second quarter of 2026.
The company allocated operating cash flow to dividends and growth investments as it recovers from difficult sector conditions in 2025.
Shares of Dow remain pressured below key technical averages, with a 71% probability of trading between $28.59 and $29.97 over the next five days.

Cash distribution and cautious sentiment persist despite earnings rebound

Dow Inc. posted year-on-year growth in both adjusted earnings per share and operating EBITDA for the second quarter of 2026. The improvement marked a recovery from challenging sector conditions experienced in 2025. Some operating cash flow was allocated to dividends and selected growth investments as the company prepares for additional quarterly results, though price action has remained under broader selling pressure.

Anton Kharitonov, expert at Traders Union, notes clear technical weakness in Dow Inc. He underscores the significance of the current price staying below all key moving averages. The bearish structure is confirmed by dominant selling pressure and mixed momentum readings. Kharitonov highlights that even positive earnings and EBITDA have failed to offset market pessimism or spark a rebound. He states, "Until Dow can break above persistent resistance and strengthen trend signals, I see little reason to expect a sustainable recovery."

Viktoras Karapetjanc, expert at Traders Union, focuses on the company's solid operational turnaround. He sees growth in core earnings and operating EBITDA as a sign that Dow is regaining momentum after a tough 2025. Karapetjanc believes that reinvestment into dividends and growth sets up long-term opportunities. He maintains a constructive outlook, saying, "With fundamentals improving and strategic investment underway, I expect Dow's bullish structure to reassert itself once market sentiment stabilizes."

Sholanke Dele, market strategist, observes that bearish sentiment dominates Dow despite some operational improvements. He notes that sellers remained in control, with the stock pressed towards session lows and volatility elevated. Dele warns that broad market flows and a lack of conviction underpin the downside risk. He comments, "If support at $28.59 gives way, further pressure could quickly intensify as confidence erodes."

Bearish technical structure persists as momentum indicators diverge

Dow is trading below its 20-day, 50-day, and 200-day moving averages ($30.91, $30, and $31.44), pointing to continued pressure from sellers in the short, medium, and long term. The immediate resistance sits at $29.7, while support is seen at the near-term floor of $28.59. The current alignment between the MA-50 and MA-200 reinforces a bearish technical structure. Momentum indicators deliver mixed signals: MACD suggests strong buy momentum, but the ADX is neutral, indicating weak trend strength. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) registers 47.4 with a sell forecast; CCI and Awesome Oscillator are neutral, while Stochastic RSI signals oversold conditions at 6.19. Bull/Bear Power remains positive at 0.22, suggesting a slight intraday advantage for buyers, though broader bias stays negative. Intraday volatility is marked at 2.53% with the price near session lows and ongoing downside pressure after the open. Many oscillators and momentum readings are diverging, with the MACD hinting at potential for a rebound but price action and RSI still favoring sellers.

Earlier, analysts noted that Dow had shifted from a bullish phase to displaying increased downside pressure and technical weakness. The current analysis strengthens this outlook, with updated momentum indicators underscoring persistent selling and highlighting a move below $28.59 as a key downside risk to monitor in the days ahead.

Source of Data: DOW Price Analysis by TU

The analysis is based on a proprietary model combining technical, on-chain, and expert data. Not investment advice. See methodology

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