AMD tests critical support zone as CPI threatens AI rally
AMD remains one of the strongest AI stories of the year, but after its sharp September rally, the stock has become increasingly sensitive to macro data. Today’s session could show how resilient demand remains.
520.40
578.75
TSMC reported record August sales of around NT$514.8 billion ($16.3 billion), up 53% from a year earlier. At the same time, reports that the chipmaker could raise manufacturing prices by as much as 10% next year are creating fresh concerns. For major TSMC customers, including AMD, higher production costs could put additional pressure on margins.
Another company-specific catalyst comes from AMD’s appearance today at the Goldman Sachs Communacopia and Technology Conference. Management comments on Instinct, Helios and data-center demand could become an additional driver during the regular trading session.
Break below $493.50 could expose $478
The bearish setup highlighted earlier only began to develop on September 10. Before that, buyers were still able to push AMD toward resistance at $527, but the stock failed to establish itself near that zone.
Today’s session could be particularly volatile because of CPI. If inflation comes in above expectations, another round of selling across technology stocks could quickly intensify pressure on AMD.
The key support now sits at $493.50. A sustained move below this level would increase the probability of a deeper correction toward $478.
A recovery and sustained move above $516 would invalidate this scenario.
Two catalysts could reshape AMD in one session
What makes today unusual for AMD is that two separate events could change investor sentiment. The CPI data will come out before the market opens. Then later in the day AMD management is set to speak at the Goldman Sachs conference. Analysts expect the headline CPI to be 0.4% month over month and 3.4% year over year. Core CPI is expected to be 0.2% for the month and 2.4% for the year.
This means the trading day could play out in two parts. First markets might adjust their view on the chances of a Federal Reserve rate hike based on the CPI numbers. Then the focus could move to what AMD has to say. With AMDs stock, on a strong run recently this mix of events raises the chance of big swings during the day. A sharp move up or down could happen quickly depending on how the data and the commentary're received.
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