Cisco shares underperform as MACD remains in sell zone and range narrows below resistance: weekly analysis

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Cisco Systems falls 3.54% this week

Highlights

Shares of Cisco fell 3.54% this week to $105.73, trading below both key short-term moving averages.
Technical indicators remain bearish and oversold, with the stock hovering just above support at $104.51.
Over the next five trading days, the expected price range is $102.61 to $108.84, with a 79% probability of further decline.

Product launches and major contracts drive innovation amid sentiment headwinds

Cisco continued rolling out new AI-driven products and winning network contracts last week, underscored by the September 23, 2026, release of an AgenticOps enterprise automation study with Omdia, according to PR Newswire. The company also signed a multi-year agreement to upgrade Notre Dame University's campus infrastructure leveraging nearly 1,000 Catalyst 9300X switches, as reported by GuruFocus. These developments highlight ongoing corporate innovation even as attention stays on product launches and partnerships.

Bearish technicals persist as oversold signals cluster near key support

On the daily chart, Cisco stock remains firmly below both short-term averages, with MACD in sell territory and CCI deeply oversold at -195.27. Bull/Bear Power also points to an oversold condition, emphasizing near-term bearish dominance despite volatility running at 6.66%. Price action hovers just above support at $104.51, while resistance is defined by the Ichimoku Kijun at $108.73. The momentum character for the coming days is likely a contained move within a narrow range.

Consolidation base case as breakout risk centers on $104.51 and $108.73

For the next five trading days, the expected range is $102.61 to $108.84. There is a 21% probability of an increase and a 79% probability of a decrease. The base case is continued consolidation between support at $104.51 and resistance at $108.73. A push above $108.73 could challenge the upper end of the range, while a sustained move below $104.51 would target deeper lows toward $102.61.

Sholanke Dele, market strategist, sees shares of Cisco Systems struggling this week as sellers kept the pressure on, pushing the price toward oversold territory at $106. Despite Cisco’s ongoing innovation — highlighted by new AI-driven products and the Notre Dame campus infrastructure contract — the daily technical picture signals persistent bearish momentum. The stock remains below short-term averages, with MACD and CCI both confirming downside pressure. Dele expects a narrow consolidation between $104.51 and $108.73 in the coming week, with a 79% chance of further decline. "Unless Cisco shares push decisively above $108.73 soon, I remain cautious and defensive on the stock’s prospects this week."

Previously it was reported that Cisco faced heightened downside risk as technical weakness and security concerns weighed on the stock's near-term outlook. The current article adds that while shares remain under sustained bearish pressure and oversold conditions persist, traders should monitor the $104.51 support level closely for signs of either further breakdown or stabilization.

Source of Data: CSCO Price Analysis by TU

The analysis is based on a proprietary model combining technical, on-chain, and expert data. Not investment advice. See methodology

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