Supermicro shares drop nearly 3% after NVIDIA Vera Rubin NVL72 shipments and $60B AI order book update

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Supermicro slides 2.93% today to $40.23

Highlights

Supermicro has begun shipping NVIDIA Vera Rubin NVL72 racks with direct liquid cooling and integrated data center solutions.
The company reported a $60 billion AI order book and projects strong revenue growth through fiscal 2027.
Shares of Supermicro sit in a bullish trend with strong momentum indicators, trading between $38.05 to $42.41 over the next five days.

AI shipments and order growth support sentiment amid market selling

Supermicro began shipments of NVIDIA Vera Rubin NVL72 racks integrated with its Data Center Building Block Solutions and direct liquid cooling technology. The company reported a significant $60 billion AI order book and stated an ambitious revenue outlook for fiscal 2027. Technical indicators have recently shown gains supported by these sector and company-specific developments, though price action has remained under broader selling pressure.

Anton Kharitonov, expert at Traders Union, cautions that SMCI's recent decline signals market hesitation despite favorable technicals. He points out that overbought momentum indicators and end-of-session price weakness increase downside risk. Kharitonov is skeptical about the sustainability of the bullish structure in light of significant volatility and fading early gains. He notes that ambitious revenue targets and order book news have not shielded the stock from selling pressure. "Traders should remain cautious, as excessive optimism may not be justified while bearish signals remain in play and volatility persists."

Viktoras Karapetjanc, expert at Traders Union, maintains a confident view on SMCI due to strong fundamentals and AI sector momentum. He sees recent shipments of NVIDIA-integrated racks and the $60 billion order book as growth catalysts. Karapetjanc expects the bullish structure to hold above $38.54, supported by robust trend and momentum signals. The analyst highlights further upside potential if resistance at $40.79 is cleared. "SMCI remains in a strong position and further growth is anticipated as institutional demand drives fresh opportunities."

Sholanke Dele, market strategist, notes broader market pressures undermining gains in SMCI despite positive news flow. He sees the near-term move as vulnerable, with sentiment not fully absorbing ambitious company outlooks. Dele stresses the significance of intraday volatility and the failure to hold early highs. "Investors should be wary of short-term exuberance, as risk of abrupt pullbacks remains pronounced in this environment."

Bullish momentum holds above key averages as overbought signals emerge

SMCI is trading above its 20-day, 50-day, and 200-day moving averages at $38.54, $34.37, and $31.72, respectively, confirming a bullish structure across timeframes. The near-term resistance is at $40.79 and support at $38.54, with the MA-50 vs MA-200 alignment reinforcing positive long-term momentum. Momentum readings point to a positive bias—MACD and ADX are both in buy territory, RSI stands at 60.11 with a buy signal, and the Awesome Oscillator also suggests further gains. However, CCI and Bull/Bear Power indicate overbought conditions, while the Stochastic RSI at 75.87 remains neutral. The stock ended the session near its intraday low, and intraday volatility was 4.68%.

In a recent review, Supermicro was characterized by mixed technical momentum and ongoing selling pressure despite product expansion efforts. The current analysis builds on that outlook by highlighting strengthened trend signals and a bullish structural bias, with the key level to watch now at $40.79 for any confirmation of further upside.

Source of Data: SMCI Price Analysis by TU

The analysis is based on a proprietary model combining technical, on-chain, and expert data. Not investment advice. See methodology

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