Microsoft approaches $520 as AI monetization supports the rebound
MSFT is rising toward $514 on September 25 after several weeks of range-bound trading around $490–500. On the hourly chart, today’s move still does not change the overall picture until strong resistance is broken.
535.00
535.00
Copilot opens a broader revenue opportunity
The reason the market is once again willing to pay a premium for Microsoft is increasingly tied not simply to Azure, but to the scale of AI monetization across the entire ecosystem. Microsoft 365 Copilot has already exceeded 30 million paid seats, while net subscription additions in the latest quarter more than doubled compared with the previous quarter.
As the next step, the company is trying to expand the model beyond a standard license, with new agentic features and Copilot Cowork partially moving to usage-based pricing through Copilot Credits. Thus, if corporate customers begin actively paying not only for access to AI, but also for the work performed by agents, Microsoft will gain an additional source of revenue alongside the traditional subscription model.
Azure growth comes with a heavy investment bill
Azure, meanwhile, remains the main infrastructure growth engine. In the latest quarter, its revenue increased by 43%, Microsoft Cloud generated $59.3 billion, while commercial remaining performance obligations reached $678 billion, rising 84% year over year. These figures are important primarily because they provide good visibility into future revenue.
Nevertheless, quarterly capex reached $41 billion, with around two-thirds allocated to relatively fast-depreciating assets, primarily CPUs and GPUs, so the market is paying increasingly close attention to how quickly new data centers begin to generate returns.
$520 remains the key technical barrier
The bulls still need a confident breakout above resistance around $520. Otherwise, the price could return to support around the $490 level. A loss of this level, as noted in Microsoft remains under pressure below $500, would lead to a decline toward support near $480 and increase the risk of a break below it and the development of a broader decline.
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