Apple tests record highs as iPhone 18 demand strengthens

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Apple tests highs on stronger demand

Longer delivery times point to firmer demand

The initial data was mixed, but by the second week the picture had changed: JPMorgan recorded an increase in the average lead time for the iPhone 18 Pro from 7 to 23 days, while the Pro Max rose from 19 to 30 days. In the U.S., the U.K., and Germany, delivery times are now roughly in line with last year's cycle, although China still looks weaker. Morgan Stanley also points out that Apple increased planned production of premium models by around 18% year over year, so similar lead times despite higher supply may indicate fairly resilient underlying demand.

Apple's latest earnings provide a strong base ahead of the new product cycle. In the fiscal third quarter, revenue rose 16% to $109.4 billion, EPS increased 29% to $2.02, and record results were posted across iPhone, Mac, and Services. The profit mix is particularly important: Services generated around $30.7 billion in revenue at a gross margin of 75.6%, while the company's overall gross margin reached 50.1%.

However, around two percentage points of that figure came from tariff refunds, meaning part of the record profitability was one-off in nature and the comparison will become less favorable next quarter. Apple itself expects overall gross margin to fall to 47–48%, despite retaining part of the positive impact from tariff refunds.

Guidance shifts attention to supply and margins

At the same time, the company's official guidance remains fairly aggressive. For the September quarter, Apple expects total revenue to grow 9–11% year over year, while iPhone revenue is projected to rise at a mid-teens rate despite an FX headwind of around 2.5 percentage points and more significant supply constraints affecting iPhone, Mac, and iPad.

This creates an unusual situation for the current cycle: the risk lies not so much in a lack of demand as in Apple's ability to produce and deliver enough devices. The new Siri AI and the further expansion of Apple Intelligence provide additional catalysts, although the market still appears to view AI more as a future driver of user retention and a faster device upgrade cycle than as a major standalone source of revenue.

$345 remains the key technical barrier

For AAPL, the coming weeks are therefore likely to be shaped by three factors: actual iPhone 18 sales once the initial launch excitement fades, demand in China, and whether the company can maintain margins as part of the tariff-related benefit disappears.

The rebound from current support around $335 and the return toward the highs suggest that bulls remain in control, but they still need a breakout above resistance. Otherwise, as noted in Apple pulls back from record highs as $335 support comes into focus, a larger liquidation of long positions could trigger a deeper correction.

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