Microsoft tests $520 resistance as AI monetization story evolves
MSFT is trading around $517–518 on September 30 and has once again approached the $518–520 area, which remains the nearest resistance. On the hourly chart, the structure looks stronger than it did in the middle of the month: the price is holding above the main moving averages, while pullbacks toward $510–512 are still being bought quickly.
524.70
534.70
Softer inflation supports tech sentiment
Today’s U.S. macroeconomic data added some positive momentum to the technology sector. August PCE rose 0.3% m/m, while the annual rate slowed to 3.4% versus the expected 3.7%. Core PCE came in at 3.0% y/y versus a 3.3% forecast. At the same time, ADP showed private-sector employment growth of 90,000 after 36,000 previously, while U.S. GDP growth in the second quarter was revised upward to an annualized 2.2%.
For MSFT, this combination is generally positive: inflation is cooling faster than expected, U.S. Treasury yields declined after the release, while the economy and labor market still do not look weak. Within Microsoft itself, the new factor is not so much another expansion of AI features as the company’s attempt to change the way they are used in the corporate environment.
Copilot shifts toward persistent AI workflows
The updated Copilot brings together Home, Code and Autopilot, with Autopilot designed to carry out ongoing multi-step tasks without continuous user involvement. This is gradually changing Copilot’s role from an additional Microsoft 365 feature into a separate work layer through which the company can increase not only subscription revenue, but also usage-based payments for AI tools.
At the same time, the market has already priced MSFT positively: the stock is ending the quarter with one of its strongest gains in many years, so expectations for further results are becoming higher. Investors are no longer satisfied simply with seeing strong demand for AI and cloud capacity. They now need evidence that these investments are accelerating revenue growth faster than capital expenditures are rising.
$520 breakout puts $540 in focus
Nevertheless, demand near the psychological $500 level remains in place, along with the chances of breaking resistance around $520 and moving toward $540, where moderate profit-taking on long positions may emerge. A loss of support at $500, as I warned in the article Microsoft holds near $509 as $520 caps upside, would lead to a decline toward the $490–480 area.
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