National Grid stock forecast: Consolidation near GBX1,234 resistance as outlook improves

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National Grid up 0.44% today at GBX1,153

Highlights

National Grid raised its full-year earnings outlook after recording a stronger-than-expected first-half performance and gains from capital market transactions.
The company reported operational outperformance and improved results in its interconnector business, supporting increased financial strength.
Shares of National Grid trade with a positive short- and medium-term technical bias, with a high probability of a move toward GBX1,183 and immediate support at GBX1,146.

Upgraded earnings outlook as capital gains and operations strengthen

National Grid has raised its full-year earnings outlook following a stronger-than-expected first-half performance, according to Proactiveinvestors. This update reflects concrete operational outperformance, driven by one-off fair value gains from two capital market transactions and enhanced results within the interconnector business. The company's upward revision to earnings expectations provides a tangible signal of improved internal financial strength, which can support demand for the stock in the current market context.

Bullish momentum signals amid resistance and overbought warnings

On the hourly chart, NG is trading above the MA-20 at GBX1,138 and the MA-50 at GBX1,136. However, on the daily timeframe, the price remains below the MA-200 at GBX1,234. The nearest support is identified at the Ichimoku Kijun level of GBX1,146. Among momentum indicators, the MACD continues to show active buying, while ADX remains neutral. The RSI is at 63, suggesting buying momentum, but Stoch RSI, CCI, and Bull/Bear Power all register in overbought territory, indicating that the market may be stretched in the short term. The Awesome Oscillator also supports the prevailing upward trend. Despite strong momentum signals, today's session displayed moderate volatility and the price closed near the daily low, highlighting a divergence between bullish indicators and intraday follow-through.

Upside scenario favored as downside risk hinges on support break

Over the next 2–3 trading days, the expected price range for NG is GBX1,127 to GBX1,183, corresponding to a typical volatility band relative to current levels. The probability of a continued move upward within this range is very high, while the likelihood of a short-term pullback remains low. If prices consolidate around current levels, sideways movement is likely to prevail. A sustained breakout above resistance could target the upper end of the range, while a drop below support at GBX1,146 would expose the stock to increased downside risk in the short term.

Anton Kharitonov, analyst at Traders Union, sees National Grid’s improved earnings outlook as a fundamental positive but remains cautious given overbought technical signals. He believes upside is possible, yet short-term momentum looks stretched, and closing near the session low signals hesitation by buyers. Support at GBX1,146 is crucial; failure to hold could flip sentiment quickly. "Until the price can reclaim the MA-200 at GBX1,234 or establish a solid base above GBX1,146, I remain defensively positioned and avoid aggressive entries here."

Earlier, analysts noted that utility stocks faced valuation pressure from rising bond yields but retained fundamental support due to steady power demand and sector tailwinds. National Grid's upgraded earnings outlook and strong technical profile add further support to the sector’s resilience, with traders now watching for a sustained move above GBX1,183 as the next potential catalyst.

Source of Data: NG Price Analysis by TU

The analysis is based on a proprietary model combining technical, on-chain, and expert data. Not investment advice. See methodology

The information is based on forecasts and does not constitute investment advice or a guarantee of future results. Market conditions may change. See our Disclaimer and Editorial Integrity for details.