Microsoft returns toward $530 on strong AI demand and Nasdaq recovery
MSFT is trading around $526 on the presented 4-hour chart after a strong move higher and is once again approaching the $530–535 area. The technical picture has improved noticeably: the price is holding firmly above its main short-term and medium-term moving averages, while recent pullbacks toward $500–510 were quickly bought.
534.70
533.27
Bonds remain a risk, but market is buying big tech again
The bond market remains the main external constraint for Microsoft. The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield is holding around 5.3% on October 5, close to its highest levels since 2002, which usually puts pressure on the valuations of companies with a high share of future cash flows. At the same time, the stock market looks noticeably more resilient today: Nasdaq is rising faster than S&P 500, while Microsoft is among the leaders in the large-cap technology group.
Softer ISM services data pushed the 10-year yield slightly lower from its local highs, giving investors at least temporary relief from rate pressure.
Azure and Copilot continue to support fundamental story
Microsoft's fundamental backdrop remains one of the strongest among megacaps. In the latest quarter, company revenue reached $90.0 billion, Microsoft Cloud generated $59.3 billion, while Azure grew 43% year over year. Commercial remaining performance obligations increased to $678 billion, giving the company high visibility into future revenue.
Microsoft also reported that the number of paid Microsoft 365 Copilot users exceeded 30 million. The main question for investors is no longer whether there is demand for AI, but how quickly huge infrastructure spending will translate into profit, as growing AI workloads continue to put pressure on cloud margins.
Forecasts remain positive, but expectations are rising
Analyst sentiment toward MSFT remains predominantly bullish. In late September and early October, several banks raised their price targets for the stock: Wells Fargo lifted its target to $725, Piper Sandler to $610, Stifel to $575, while the analyst consensus is around $566.
This leaves moderate upside potential relative to the current price, but at the same time raises the bar ahead of the next earnings report. In the coming weeks, holding above $515–520 will be key for MSFT. A breakout above $530–535 would confirm continuation of the bullish momentum and open the way toward the September highs, while another jump in U.S. Treasury yields or weakness in Nasdaq, as noted in MSFT tests $520 as Treasury yields retreat, could push the stock back toward $500–505.
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