MSFT is trading around $517–518 on October 2 and is once again testing the upper end of its local range. On the hourly chart, the structure remains fairly strong: the stock is holding above its main medium-term moving averages, while recent pullbacks toward $508–510 have been quickly bought.
530.94
534.70
Labor data ease pressure on tech
Today, the broader backdrop for Microsoft has become noticeably more comfortable following weaker U.S. labor market data. A significant decline in nonfarm payrolls, a rise in the unemployment rate, and higher wages reduced expectations for further aggressive Fed tightening and pushed U.S. Treasury yields lower after yesterday’s sharp increase.
For MSFT, this is important because lower 10-year Treasury yields reduce valuation pressure on fast-growing technology companies and partially restore investor interest in stocks with a large share of future cash flows.
Heavy AI spending remains key concern
The main limiting factor, however, remains massive capital spending on data centers, GPUs, and cloud infrastructure expansion. For now, the market is accepting this strategy thanks to strong Azure growth and a large volume of already contracted business, but with Treasury yields above 5%, investors are becoming significantly more sensitive to how quickly these investments can generate returns.
Bulls face decisive $520 barrier
For now, bulls continue to challenge resistance around $520, but failure to break above this level increases the risk of long-position liquidation, which could lead to a break below support around $500 and a test of the $490 support area. A loss of this support, as I warned in the article Microsoft holds firm as Azure and AI monetization support growth, could trigger a decline toward $480–470, although buyers may become more active on the way down.
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