Microsoft holds firm as Azure and AI monetization support growth
MSFT is trading around $513–514 on October 1 and continues to show a fairly strong structure on the 2-hour chart after its September rally. The stock remains above its medium-term moving averages, while pullbacks toward $500–503 have been quickly bought in recent weeks.
526.00
534.70
Azure demand remains strong
Azure remains the main fundamental support for MSFT. In the latest quarter, Microsoft’s revenue rose 18% to $90.0 billion, Microsoft Cloud generated $59.3 billion, and Azure and other cloud services grew 43%.
There are still no clear signs of weaker demand. Customer demand for computing capacity continues to exceed available supply, while Microsoft expects Azure revenue to grow by roughly 45% this quarter. Commercial remaining performance obligation reached $678 billion, giving the company a very large amount of already contracted future business.
Copilot monetization adds another growth driver
MSFT is also benefiting not only from AI growth, but from improving AI monetization. Microsoft 365 Copilot has passed 30 million paid seats, while net new additions more than doubled last quarter. The company is now expanding its revenue model by gradually moving some of its more resource-intensive agent features to usage-based billing.
For investors, this is an important shift because Microsoft is trying to add another source of revenue on top of its traditional subscription model, one that depends directly on how heavily customers use AI. If corporate clients start deploying autonomous agents on a larger scale, Copilot revenue could grow faster than the number of licenses sold.
At the same time, Microsoft continues to invest heavily in data centers, servers, and AI infrastructure, and management has already warned that capital spending will keep rising. This is putting pressure on free cash flow and, to some extent, cloud margins. Overall gross margin fell to 67% in the latest quarter, while Microsoft Cloud margin came in at 65%, mainly because of Azure’s growing share of the business and higher AI-related costs.
$520 remains key resistance
For now, buyers are still showing interest near the psychological $500 level. However, as noted in Microsoft tests $520 resistance as AI monetization story evolves, bulls have so far failed to break through resistance around $520. This increases the risk of profit-taking on long positions. If selling pressure grows, MSFT could break below the $504–500 support area and move toward the next support zone around $490–480.
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