Microsoft shares technical analysis: Buyers challenge $532 resistance after strong Azure results

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Microsoft jumps 1.36% today to $532

Highlights

Microsoft reported fiscal 2026 revenue of $331.8 billion, an 18% increase, and adjusted earnings per share up 22% to $17.28.
Azure annual revenue surpassed $100 billion with a $678 billion commercial contract backlog, confirming continued long-term deal momentum.
Shares of Microsoft trade above key technical supports with intraday momentum favoring upside and a projected range of $524.48 to $539.52.

Margin expansion and recurring contracts as fiscal results drive sentiment

Microsoft's strong fiscal 2026 results, with revenue reaching $331.8 billion (up 18%) and adjusted earnings per share increasing 22% to $17.28, have highlighted the company's robust operating performance and margin expansion, according to Kalkinemedia. Accelerating demand for Azure, confirmed by annual revenue surpassing $100 billion and a commercial contract backlog of $678 billion, signals that Microsoft continues to secure major long-term deals and recurring revenue sources. Additional factors such as quarterly earnings per share of $4.74 (beating estimates, aided by a $3.2 billion contribution from Anthropic according to Finance Yahoo) and the $10.2 billion returned to shareholders through dividends and buybacks further reinforce the company's appeal with both growth and income-focused investors.

Bullish bias persists as price holds above moving averages and signals diverge

On the technical front, MSFT is trading above its MA-20 at $518.99 and MA-50 at $515.47 on the hourly chart, and remains well above the daily MA-200 at $433.03. The Ichimoku Kijun provides immediate support at $521.91. MACD and ADX both register buy signals intraday, while RSI is at 61.04, indicating bullish momentum but not yet overbought. CCI signals a buy, though Bull/Bear Power is overbought and Stoch RSI flashes a strong sell indication. Awesome Oscillator remains neutral, illustrating some divergence among oscillators. Current price action is near the high of the day in a low volatility environment.

Sideways-to-upward scenario as volatility clusters near recent highs

Over the short term, MSFT is expected to consolidate within a range of $524.48 to $539.52, reflecting typical volatility surrounding recent highs. There is a 78% probability of further upside, while the chance of a near-term pullback is much lower. The baseline scenario is a sideways-to-upward drift as buyers digest recent gains, with a break above resistance opening the way toward the upper band, while a move below support may trigger a brief correction into the lower part of the indicated range.

Anton Kharitonov, expert at Traders Union, sees continued strength in Microsoft after robust fiscal results and positive technical signals. However, he remains cautious as several oscillators show emerging divergence and the price approaches recent highs. Kharitonov believes buyers are in control but warns momentum may taper within the short-term range. "Until we see a clear breakout above $539.52 or a decisive move below $524.48, my bias is defensive and I prefer to wait for better risk-reward," he says.

Earlier, analysts noted that a small group of artificial intelligence leaders including Microsoft, has been driving major U.S. equity indexes despite mounting pressures from higher Treasury yields and broader market strain. The company’s recent strong earnings results and continued technical strength now add weight to this narrative, with the key level to monitor in the coming sessions being sustained closes above $539.52 as a signal of further upside potential.

Source of Data: MSFT Price Analysis by TU

The analysis is based on a proprietary model combining technical, on-chain, and expert data. Not investment advice. See methodology

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