Can Chevron stock avoid deeper losses as global energy supply faces threat?

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Chevron drops 1.18% to $205.27 today

Highlights

Chevron has sold its Hess Midstream and DJ Basin midstream stakes, restructuring Bakken agreements to lower long-term costs.
Bakken midstream costs are projected to drop about 50%, supporting greater operational efficiency in future periods.
Chevron stock trades below key short- and medium-term moving averages with sellers dominant short term and a projected range of $202.49 to $208.05.

Midstream asset sales and fund flows bolster outlook amid market fragility

Chevron has announced the sale of its interests in Hess Midstream and DJ Basin crude oil midstream assets as part of a restructuring of its Bakken midstream agreements, a move expected to have a direct operational and financial impact by lowering its long-term cost base. According to Gurufocus, the transaction is projected to reduce midstream costs in the Bakken region by about 50%, allowing for greater efficiency in future operations. Meanwhile, Chevron’s CEO highlighted in comments reported by Seekingalpha that the global energy market remains fragile due to shrinking oil and fuel supply buffers stemming from continued Middle East conflict, while ETF data from Gurufocus indicated $302.7 million in institutional purchases on October 2. These developments set a fundamentally positive backdrop for the stock, though price action has remained under broader selling pressure.

Short-term resistance holds as mixed momentum signals stall recovery

On the technical front, CVX is trading below both the MA-20 and MA-50 on the H1 timeframe, while remaining well above the long-term MA-200, indicating seller pressure on shorter timeframes but ongoing support from the MA-200. The nearest Ichimoku Kijun level stands at $205.33 and now serves as immediate resistance. Momentum signals are mixed: MACD and Awesome Oscillator both point to bullish momentum, though ADX signals weakening trend strength. RSI and CCI suggest underlying buying interest, with Stochastic RSI holding neutral and Bull/Bear Power registering overbought conditions, reflecting pockets of intraday buying dominance amid overall uncertainty.

Rangebound consolidation favored as odds tilt toward further downside

Over the coming sessions, CVX is expected to trade within a band of $202.49 to $208.05, reflecting typical volatility near current levels. Forecast models assign a 71% probability to a move down, with only a 29% chance of an upward move. The base case scenario sees the price consolidating sideways within this range. A breakout above $205.33 and the upper boundary would mark a bullish turn, while a breakdown at support could put the lower end of the range in play.

Viktoras Karapetjanc, expert at Traders Union, believes Chevron’s asset sales and cost-cutting moves strengthen its long-term fundamentals. He sees rising institutional flows and constructive management actions providing a solid base despite short-term weakness in price action. The fragile macro environment introduces risk, but operational improvements should support resilience. "If Chevron holds above $202.49 and global jitters subside, I expect renewed upside momentum to develop."

Previously it was reported that Chevron shares were consolidating as investors weighed the impact of corporate divestments and ongoing operational changes. Recent price action, coupled with updates on the company’s cost-cutting initiatives and mixed technical signals, reinforces a wait-and-see approach with key attention on whether CVX can sustain support near the $202.49 level or decisively break higher in the sessions ahead.

Source of Data: CVX Price Analysis by TU

The analysis is based on a proprietary model combining technical, on-chain, and expert data. Not investment advice. See methodology

The information is based on forecasts and does not constitute investment advice or a guarantee of future results. Market conditions may change. See our Disclaimer and Editorial Integrity for details.