Toronto Dominion Bank launches major share repurchase: TD tests resistance

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Toronto Dominion Bank gains 1.21% today

Highlights

Toronto-Dominion Bank approved a new buyback plan to repurchase up to 61 million shares for C$10 billion, with all shares to be cancelled by October 8, 2026.
The buyback reduces outstanding shares and supports per-share metrics, reinforcing the company’s focus on capital strength and shareholder returns.
TD stock closed at C$164.19, near session highs, with mixed momentum signals suggesting potential rangebound trading between C$160.66 and C$167.72 and a higher probability of a move lower.

Share buyback boosts investor confidence after board’s major authorization

Toronto-Dominion Bank has approved a new normal course issuer bid to repurchase up to 61 million shares for C$10 billion, with all shares to be cancelled following the Board’s authorization on October 8, 2026, according to Simplywall. This substantial buyback program directly reduces the number of outstanding shares, supporting per-share metrics and lifting demand among investors. The announcement instills confidence in the company's capital strength and signals management's commitment to shareholder returns.

Mixed momentum signals as price nears resistance amid overbought signs

Technically, TD is trading above the 20-period moving average at C$162.76 and the long-term 200-period moving average at C$150.55, while remaining below the 50-period moving average at C$165.41. Immediate resistance is noted at the Ichimoku Kijun level of C$164.73. Momentum signals are mixed: RSI is reading 52, which signals a Buy, while both MACD and ADX register Sell indications. Stoch RSI, CCI, and Bull/Bear Power point to overbought conditions, highlighting recent buyer activity and possible short-term exhaustion despite moderate volatility.

Rangebound forecast prevails as bearish risk outweighs upside moves

In the short term, TD is expected to trade within a C$160.66 to C$167.72 range over the coming sessions. The probability of an upward move is currently estimated at 33%, while the likelihood of a downward adjustment stands at 67%. The baseline expectation is for the price to remain rangebound; a breakout above C$164.73 would trigger bullish momentum, while a failure of support near C$160.66 would favor a bearish scenario.

Anton Kharitonov, expert at Traders Union, sees some fundamental support for Toronto Dominion Bank from the large-scale buyback. However, technical and sentiment signals remain mixed, with the price capped below key mid-term resistance and a high chance of a short-term pullback. The risk of downside is higher, and momentum is far from decisive. "I remain cautious here — unless C$164.73 is cleared, the upside scenario is unconvincing."

Earlier, analysts noted that Toronto Dominion Bank was experiencing persistent short-term technical weakness and downside pressure amid delayed capital return initiatives. The current analysis adds that, despite improved price positioning above key moving averages and renewed buyback authorization, the main scenario remains for rangebound trading, with a breakout above C$164.73 serving as a potential bullish catalyst to monitor.

Source of Data: TD Price Analysis by TU

The analysis is based on a proprietary model combining technical, on-chain, and expert data. Not investment advice. See methodology

The information is based on forecasts and does not constitute investment advice or a guarantee of future results. Market conditions may change. See our Disclaimer and Editorial Integrity for details.