Nvidia stock extends downward move as sellers remain in control

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Nvidia drops 1.04% today to $226.97

Highlights

Nvidia is in early talks to acquire, invest in, or license Reflection AI to strengthen its AI model development.
No transaction terms or timeline have been disclosed, introducing uncertainty regarding future technology or talent impacts for Nvidia.
Nvidia stock trades below short- and medium-term moving averages with near-term range projected at $220.76 to $233.18 and downside pressure prevailing.

Strategic AI expansion eyed as Reflection AI deal talks proceed

Nvidia is reportedly in early-stage discussions to either acquire, invest further in, or license technology and hire staff from Reflection AI, an American open-weight artificial intelligence model developer, according to a Financial Times report cited by The Times of India. These negotiations, while not finalized and with no disclosed transaction terms, highlight Nvidia’s strategic interest in expanding its AI model development capabilities. The range of potential deal formats introduces uncertainty about the timing and magnitude of any future impact on Nvidia’s technology base or talent pool.

Persistent downside momentum as resistance holds and sellers dominate

Technically, NVDA is trading below both its MA-20 and MA-50, reflecting short- and medium-term pressure, but it remains supported by the daily MA-200. The Ichimoku Kijun level at $234.87 is acting as immediate resistance. Both MACD and ADX are highlighting ongoing downside momentum, while oversold readings are seen on the RSI, CCI, and Stoch RSI. Bull/Bear Power readings show sellers dominating intraday activity, and the Awesome Oscillator continues to reinforce the prevailing bearish move.

Downtrend bias favored as reversal odds remain limited

In the near term, NVDA is expected to range between $220.76 and $233.18 as typical volatility. The probability of an upward reversal stands at 21%, while continued downside movement is more probable at 79%. A break above $234.87 would trigger a bullish scenario, but a move below $220.76 would confirm further weakness.

Anton Kharitonov, expert at Traders Union, sees Nvidia under clear technical pressure with the stock trading below key short- and medium-term averages. He notes that early-stage talks regarding Reflection AI add strategic interest but bring more questions than immediate benefits. Kharitonov remains cautious given downside momentum and unresolved deal risks. "Without a sustained move above $234.87, I remain defensive on NVDA in the short term."

Earlier, analysts noted that a handful of large technology companies like Nvidia have been primary drivers of S&P 500 performance amid broader market weakness due to rising Treasury yields. The current technical pressures on Nvidia, despite its ongoing strategic AI initiatives, underscore the importance of watching for a decisive move either above the $234.87 resistance or below the $220.76 support to signal the next directional shift.

Source of Data: NVDA Price Analysis by TU

The analysis is based on a proprietary model combining technical, on-chain, and expert data. Not investment advice. See methodology

The information is based on forecasts and does not constitute investment advice or a guarantee of future results. Market conditions may change. See our Disclaimer and Editorial Integrity for details.