TSM climbs over 3% after AI-driven growth sparks record earnings

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Tsmc surges 3.36% today on strong demand

Highlights

TSMC reported record third-quarter 2026 revenue of $46.7 billion, up over 41% year over year, with net income rising 68.7%.
High-performance computing accounted for 68% of total revenue, with advanced chip processes generating 79% of wafer revenue, and full-year growth forecast lifted to about 44%.
Shares of TSMC trade below short- and medium-term moving averages with strong oversold conditions, expecting a range of $407.31 to $445.41 over the next five days.

Outsized profit growth as AI demand boosts revenue outlook

TSMC reported record third-quarter 2026 revenue of about $46.7 billion, a year-over-year increase of over 41%, with net income rising 68.7%. This performance was driven by strong demand for AI-focused chips as high-performance computing made up 68% of total revenue, and advanced chip processes accounted for 79% of wafer revenue. The company reaffirmed capital expenditure plans of $60 billion to $64 billion for 2026 and raised its full-year revenue growth forecast to approximately 44% in US dollar terms. TSMC also projects fourth-quarter revenue in the range of $52.3 billion to $54.3 billion.

Anton Kharitonov, expert at Traders Union, sees that TSMC’s recent surge came on impressive AI chip demand and record results. Despite this, he notes the stock is still stuck below key moving averages and faces heavy resistance zones. Technical indicators remain broadly negative, with sellers dominating and volatility persisting. He is cautious about the news-driven rally losing steam if TSMC fails to reclaim $434.46 resistance soon. "Until underlying momentum turns and clear buy signals emerge, I advise traders to remain defensive and avoid chasing temporary spikes."

Viktoras Karapetjanc, expert at Traders Union, highlights TSMC’s strong fundamentals with over 41% revenue growth and continued AI demand. He emphasizes that the firm’s robust capital expenditure commitments and raised full-year forecast signal leadership in next-gen chip markets. Karapetjanc is constructive on the stock’s strategic positioning, viewing recent results as a setup for further institutional inflows. "The bullish structure remains intact long-term — I expect further growth opportunities and see this as a chance to accumulate on temporary dips."

Jainam Mehta, market strategist, observes a divergence between TSMC’s sharp price bounce and lingering negative momentum signals. He points out that volatility remains elevated, and a sideways scenario is most likely unless $434.46 resistance breaks. Mehta notes that oversold readings may appeal to tactical contrarians seeking short-term rebounds. "A potential breakout above resistance could set up a tactical swing — but I’d stay nimble and monitor sentiment closely for confirmation."

Seller pressure persists despite oversold signals and neutral momentum

TSMC is currently trading below both its 20-day and 50-day moving averages at $452.59 and $434.46, remaining above the 200-day moving average at $395.02. This pattern indicates lingering short- and medium-term pressure from sellers, while longer-term bullish alignment remains intact. The nearest resistance stands at $434.46, with support at $417.49 and the Ichimoku Kijun at $447.4, confirming significant overhead trend barriers. Momentum indicators are mixed: MACD is neutral; ADX signals weak trend strength with a sell bias. RSI at 33.85, Stochastic RSI at 0, CCI at -200.74, and BBP at -25.34 show clear oversold conditions and dominance by sellers intraday. The Awesome Oscillator is neutral and does not influence the current bias. Despite an intraday rally toward $426.36 with volatility at 1.66%, this sharp upward price action contrasts with broadly negative momentum readings, indicating a divergence between price and underlying signals.

In a recent review, analysts noted that semiconductor stocks have been trading with increased selectivity amid ongoing competition and shifting sentiment within the AI supply chain. The mixed technical signals around TSMC now highlight $434.46 as a pivotal resistance level whose breach may indicate a shift from the current sideways trading scenario.

Source of Data: TSM Price Analysis by TU

The analysis is based on a proprietary model combining technical, on-chain, and expert data. Not investment advice. See methodology

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