Strategy approves higher digital credit buyback cap and shifts focus: MSTR faces $160.3 resistance

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Strategy jumps 3.21% today to $150.48

Highlights

Strategy’s board approved an increase in its digital credit security buyback program cap to $3 billion, signaling expanded repurchase capacity.
The company spent $193.1 million on STRC buybacks versus $22.1 million on direct Bitcoin purchases, marking a shift in capital allocation.
Shares of Strategy remain in a bullish structure across all timeframes, with the next 2 to 3 day trading range projected at $140.66 to $160.3.

Buyback expansion and regulatory clarity drive sentiment shift

Strategy’s board has approved an increase in the cap on its digital credit security (STRC) buyback program from $2 billion to $3 billion, giving management significant flexibility to retire more securities and potentially boost per-share value, as reported by Cointribune. This capital allocation move is underscored by $193.1 million already spent on STRC repurchases, which contrasts with only $22.1 million allocated toward direct Bitcoin purchases and suggests a strategic shift from direct crypto accumulation, according to Seeking Alpha. In addition, newly finalized GENIUS Act stablecoin rules from the OCC, cited by Yahoo Finance, clarify the regulatory landscape for payment-oriented digital assets and reduce legal uncertainty for firms operating in this space, indirectly supporting sentiment around Strategy’s crypto-related initiatives.

Mixed momentum signals as MSTR holds above technical supports

On the hourly chart, MSTR trades above technical support at the Ichimoku Kijun, set at $144.65. The price remains well above the MA-20 ($147.73), MA-50 ($144.59), and MA-200 ($135.33) levels. The expected support zone lies between the Ichimoku Kijun and the $140.66 region, while resistance is near $160.3. Momentum signals remain mixed: MACD registers strong buy momentum, but ADX indicates selling, and RSI points to a sell bias. Stoch RSI is in oversold territory, CCI is neutral, Bull/Bear Power is oversold, and the Awesome Oscillator is neutral.

Upside bias expected as volatility band guides short-term outlook

Over the next two to three trading days, MSTR is expected to trade within a volatility band spanning $140.66 to $160.3. The probability of a move higher is very high, with only a minimal chance of downside. In the base case, the stock may consolidate inside this range. A sustained breakout above $160.3 would open room for further gains, while a breakdown below $144.65 could see price drifting towards $140.66.

Viktoras Karapetjanc, expert at Traders Union, sees Strategy’s decisive expansion of its STRC buyback as a clear signal of management’s confidence in shareholder value. He believes the new OCC rules further strengthen sentiment by removing persistent regulatory overhangs from the digital asset space. The marked shift toward security repurchases also points to a more disciplined capital allocation approach. With fundamentals and sentiment both improved, the analyst expects positive price dynamics to continue. "In my view, clear regulatory progress and bold capital management both set the stage for MSTR to outperform in the near term."

Previously it was reported that Strategy’s expanded buyback program and continued Bitcoin accumulation were accompanied by mixed technical and momentum signals amid ongoing market volatility. The current review adds the impact of new regulatory clarity for digital assets and highlights a likely consolidation in MSTR between $140.66 and $160.3, with a breakout above resistance opening the way for further gains.

Source of Data: MSTR Price Analysis by TU

The analysis is based on a proprietary model combining technical, on-chain, and expert data. Not investment advice. See methodology

The information is based on forecasts and does not constitute investment advice or a guarantee of future results. Market conditions may change. See our Disclaimer and Editorial Integrity for details.