Nvidia stock price forecast: $203.82 support in focus as NVDA trades flat

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Nvidia steady at $215.98 amid new deals

Highlights

Nvidia has committed billions of dollars in supply contracts with six major partners to increase AI accelerator production capacity.
Expanded supply arrangements for substrates, advanced packaging and optical engines will become available between 2027 and 2028 to support long-term technology leadership.
Nvidia stock trades flat near $215.98 as strong selling pressure prevails, with a projected $210.25 to $221.7 range over the next 2 to 3 days.

Supply chain investments as management prioritizes future AI leadership

Nvidia has committed billions of dollars in supply contracts with six major partners to expand capacity for its AI accelerators, covering substrates, advanced packaging, semiconductor testing, and optical engines, according to Tomshardware. These investments are aimed at ensuring critical component availability and enabling future product scaling, with expanded supply scheduled to come online from 2027 through 2028. The move signals management's focus on securing Nvidia's long-term technology leadership, even as near-term price action remains largely flat.

Seller momentum persists as NVDA tests key moving averages

On the technical front, NVDA trades below the MA-20 at $217.76 and the MA-50 at $225.39 on the H4 timeframe, highlighting continued near-term and intermediate-term seller pressure. Price is supported by the daily MA-200 at $203.82, while the Ichimoku Kijun at $223.63 acts as an immediate ceiling. The MACD and ADX both confirm ongoing sell momentum, with RSI at 43.5 showing mild selling bias but not oversold levels. Stoch RSI is overbought, CCI is neutral, Bull/Bear Power is oversold, and the Awesome Oscillator offers no clear directional bias. Across indicators, intraday signals and momentum mostly align with selling pressure, except for the overbought reading on Stoch RSI.

Marginal downside risk as consolidation narrows near resistance

Over the next two to three trading days, NVDA is likely to consolidate within a typical volatility band from $210.25 to $221.7 as buyers and sellers remain balanced. The probability of an upward move stands at 45%, making further downside marginally more likely. Should price clear resistance at the Ichimoku Kijun ($223.63), a breakout rally may follow, while a drop below $210.25 would point to renewed seller dominance and could bring lower supports into play.

Anton Kharitonov, expert at Traders Union, believes Nvidia’s recent supply chain deals reinforce the company’s long-term ambitions but do not drive the stock in the short run. He sees ongoing technical weakness, with NVDA holding below key moving averages and momentum indicators signaling seller control. Near-term price action is expected to stay range-bound, and upside is limited unless $223.63 is decisively broken. "Until price reclaims the key resistance zone, I remain on the defensive for NVDA."

Previously it was reported that Nvidia committed $3 billion to Meta as part of a broader push to deepen its role across the AI technology supply chain and infrastructure investment. The current update adds a new dimension, as Nvidia's expanded long-term supply contracts with key partners reinforce its commitment to future capacity—and traders should now monitor for price action near the MA-200 and Ichimoku Kijun breakpoints as the next catalysts for direction.

Source of Data: NVDA Price Analysis by TU

The analysis is based on a proprietary model combining technical, on-chain, and expert data. Not investment advice. See methodology

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