Tesla net income declines and spending guidance cut: TSLA remains under pressure

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Tesla drops 1.6% today to $400.93

Highlights

Tesla reported third quarter GAAP net income of $787 million, down 43%, and lowered 2026 capital spending guidance to $20 billion.
Adoption of Tesla Full Self-Driving has reached about 1.7 million users out of 10 million global customers, and the latest software update was pushed to 14,740 additional vehicles.
Tesla stock trades with bullish short-term technical signals and is forecast to fluctuate between $381.69 and $420.17 in the next three sessions.

Earnings slump and lower investment outlook weigh on sentiment as merger talk stirs

Tesla reported a 43% decline in third-quarter GAAP net income to $787 million and lowered its 2026 capital spending guidance to $20 billion, as reported by Finance Biggo. This earnings drop and reduced investment outlook have contributed to weaker financial sentiment, highlighting ongoing margin pressures. Meanwhile, the company expanded its rollout of the new 2026.38.5.11 software update, including Full Self-Driving v14.3.13, to an additional 14,740 vehicles within minutes, according to X, while also noting adoption of Full Self-Driving by about 1.7 million out of 10 million global customers, according to News Jkn Co. Tesla and SpaceX have formed special merger committees, fueling event-driven speculation, but no formal merger agreement or timeline has been disclosed, according to 247wallst, though price action has remained under broader selling pressure.

Mixed oscillators challenge bullish momentum as volatility rises

TSLA has moved above the MA-20 at $397.16 and the MA-50 at $385.21 on the H1 chart, as well as above the long-term MA-200 at $385.88. Immediate support is defined by the Ichimoku Kijun at $387.99. On the momentum front, MACD signals strong buy and ADX suggests additional upside, though this is contrasted by mixed oscillators: RSI sits at 60.06, Stoch RSI is in oversold territory, and the CCI remains neutral. Intraday action shows buyers dominate according to Bull/Bear Power, while the Awesome Oscillator is neutral, contributing to a backdrop of heightened volatility and an unstable tone. Oscillators and momentum indicators signal possible looming indecision.

Upside favored near term as price consolidates within broad range

Over the next two to three trading days, TSLA is likely to fluctuate between $381.69 and $420.17. There is a high probability (75%) of an upward move, though a decline is less likely. The baseline expectation is for price to remain within this sideways corridor. If the bullish scenario materializes, TSLA may break above resistance and target the top end of the range, whereas failure to hold support at $387.99 could see price fall below recent intraday lows.

Viktoras Karapetjanc, expert at Traders Union, notes that the latest Tesla earnings miss and capex cut have dampened sentiment, but core fundamentals in software adoption and autonomous driving remain strong. He sees margin pressure as a concern, yet believes product innovation and event-driven interest are offsetting some of the recent weakness. Macro conditions could amplify price swings, but active FSD growth signals strong underlying demand. "Short-term volatility is likely, but I view Tesla’s ongoing focus on software and autonomy as supporting upside potential within the $381.69–$420.17 range."

Earlier, analysts noted that Tesla’s upside momentum was fueled by optimism around its Robotaxi program and speculation on a potential SpaceX merger. The current setup adds a layer of caution as mixed technical signals and ongoing margin pressures frame $387.99 as a key support to watch for shifts in near-term direction.

Source of Data: TSLA Price Analysis by TU

The analysis is based on a proprietary model combining technical, on-chain, and expert data. Not investment advice. See methodology

The information is based on forecasts and does not constitute investment advice or a guarantee of future results. Market conditions may change. See our Disclaimer and Editorial Integrity for details.