Big Oil earnings outlook draws caution as spending guidance comes into focus

Traders Union
All News
Stocks
Big Oil earnings outlook

Highlights

Marathon Petroleum's estimated earnings per share jump to $25.37 from $4.51 last year, driven by higher oil prices and refining margins.
Investor sentiment may hinge on upcoming Big Oil spending guidance as political scrutiny mounts amid strong profits and elevated oil prices.
The S&P Refining Index surged nearly 160% in 2026, prompting caution from analysts about potential industry downturns and pressure on Valero and Marathon Petroleum stocks.

Earnings surge meets scrutiny over next steps

As reported by CNBC, ExxonMobil, Chevron, Marathon Petroleum and ConocoPhillips are among the energy companies due to post results in the coming days, with earnings per share forecasts pointing to substantial gains from a year earlier.

Marathon Petroleum is expected to show one of the largest jumps, with estimated earnings per share rising to $25.37 from $4.51 last year, helped by stronger oil prices and refining margins. Even so, analysts indicate that investor reaction may depend less on the headline earnings figures and more on what companies say about future capital spending plans.

That guidance is taking on added importance as political pressure on the industry builds. Strong profits could draw criticism from officials at a time when higher oil prices remain under public scrutiny.

Refining rally and broader energy backdrop

BTIG analyst Jonathan Krinsky says caution is warranted after the S&P Refining Index surges nearly 160% in 2026, its best performance in decades. He says investors should be prepared for potential consolidation and a likely meaningful downturn in the industry, with particular concern around the stock performance of Valero and Marathon Petroleum.

At the same time, the wider U.S. energy agenda is also evolving. U.S. Energy Secretary Chris Wright is pushing for greater investment in nuclear power, while his office rolls out billions of dollars in loan guarantees to support expanded nuclear capacity.

That policy push also aligns with efforts to preserve U.S. liquefied natural gas supplies for Europe, where the energy crisis remains tied to geopolitical tensions and earlier import policy mistakes. Natural gas storage across Europe stays below average, keeping prices for imported LNG near record highs.

In our earlier article on the S&P 500’s push toward 8,000, we noted that investors were raising the bar for third-quarter results as higher oil prices and elevated Treasury yields added pressure to equities. The piece also highlighted concentration risk, warning that index performance was being propped up by a narrow group of leaders while broader market breadth weakened and election-related uncertainty loomed.

This material may contain third-party opinions, none of the data and information on this webpage constitutes investment advice according to our Disclaimer. While we adhere to strict Editorial Integrity, this post may contain references to products from our partners.