Will Nasdaq 100 index avoid a pullback amid overbought technical signals?
Nasdaq 100 (NDX) is trading at 28,649, up 1.67% on the day. The index sits above its key short-term moving average but remains below a medium-term moving average, reflecting mixed momentum in the current session.
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Highlights
- NDX/USD trades above short- and long-term moving averages but remains below key intermediate resistance at 28,687.
- Bearish momentum dominates as MACD and ADX indicate strong selling, with overbought signals suggesting short-term correction risk.
- Expected trading range is 28,226 to 28,995, with less than 20% probability of upside and over 80% chance of a downside move.
Sell signals and resistance as intraday momentum diverges
On the H1 chart, NDX/USD trades above the MA-20 but below the MA-50, while holding above the longer-term MA-200. The Ichimoku Kijun level at 28,687 serves as immediate resistance. MACD and ADX both show strong sell signals, and Bull/Bear Power remains negative, aligning with intraday selling dominance. Stoch RSI is in the overbought zone, suggesting a heightened risk of short-term correction, while RSI, CCI, and Awesome Oscillator are all neutral, highlighting a divergence between price action and underlying trend momentum.
High downside risk as rangebound trade persists
In the near term, the expected price range for NDX is between 28,226 and 28,995. Upside probability is very low—below 20%—while downside risk is high, over 80%. Continued sideways activity is likely if prices remain in this range; a sustained move above 28,687 would indicate a bullish breakout, whereas a break below 28,226 would open the door to further declines.
Earlier, analysts noted that persistent downside risk in the Nasdaq 100 was being driven by weak chip sector performance and fragile market positioning. The current technical setup reinforces this cautious outlook, with a high probability of further declines if the index fails to sustain a move above the immediate resistance at 28,687.
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