Sustained interest in semiconductor and tech giants drives Nasdaq 100 higher by 1.5%

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Nasdaq 100 rises 1.55% today

Highlights

Nasdaq 100 has fallen about 10% from its October peak, entering correction territory as capital investment in AI and cloud infrastructure raises revenue timing questions.
Short-term interest in semiconductor and mega-cap technology stocks supports gains, but there is skepticism about high valuations and the durability of AI-related growth.
The index trades below key short- and medium-term averages with technical signals favoring continued downside, and the projected five-day range is 27,844 to 29,392.

Capital outlays and valuation concerns shape correction territory sentiment

Nasdaq 100 has recently entered correction territory with a fall of approximately 10% from its October peak. Investors are watching the impact of widespread capital investments in artificial intelligence infrastructure, data centers, and cloud projects by major technology firms, raising questions over how quickly these outlays will generate revenue and profit growth. Short-term gains have been supported by renewed interest in semiconductor and mega-cap tech names, while skepticism remains about high valuations and the sustainability of AI-driven gains. Market participants are also monitoring upcoming earnings and broader macroeconomic influences.

Anton Kharitonov, expert at Traders Union, views the Nasdaq 100 rebound as weak against persistent selling pressure and stretched valuations. He notes the index remains below the critical 20-day and 50-day moving averages, suggesting sellers retain control in the short term. Momentum indicators like MACD, ADX, and the Awesome Oscillator confirm a bearish setup, while the oversold Stochastic RSI and CCI indicate only temporary selling exhaustion. Heavy spending on AI has yet to translate into sustainable earnings, which he believes clouds the growth narrative. "Unless the index clears resistance at 28,829 and recaptures major moving averages, downside risk dominates in the near term," Kharitonov warns.

Viktoras Karapetjanc, expert at Traders Union, emphasizes that the long-term bullish structure in the Nasdaq 100 remains intact despite recent volatility. He sees robust capital deployment into AI and technology sectors as laying groundwork for future growth, even if current returns are lagging. For Karapetjanc, upcoming earnings and continued investment from tech giants strengthen the foundation for another upward leg. He points out that the volatility band and healthy macro backdrop offer multiple setups for patient investors. "As the market digests short-term noise, I expect further growth and believe the bullish trend offers constructive opportunities," says Karapetjanc.

Sholanke Dele, market strategist, highlights ongoing doubts about the sustainability of current valuations in the Nasdaq 100. He is wary of high volatility and notes investors' concerns over the slow pace of earnings growth from heavy AI investments. Dele warns that market sentiment still leans negative, with few signs of strong dip-buying outside semiconductor names. "Market participants should stay cautious — downside risks remain elevated until clear evidence of renewed profit growth emerges," Dele states.

Downside momentum persists as sellers dominate below moving averages

NDX is trading below its 20-day ($29,627) and 50-day ($29,753) moving averages, while staying above the 200-day average ($27,952), underscoring long-term bullishness amid growing short- to medium-term selling pressure. The index finds key support at today's low, $28,276, and faces resistance at today's high, $28,829. Momentum indicators such as the MACD and ADX remain negative, suggesting continued downside. The RSI is currently neutral, while both the Stochastic RSI and CCI are in oversold zones, highlighting potential selling exhaustion. Bull/Bear Power points to sellers dominating intraday activity, and the Awesome Oscillator corroborates this bearish tone. Volatility for the day stands at 1.96%, with prices consolidating mid-range after a firm open but under ongoing seller pressure.

Earlier, analysts warned of persistent downside risk for the Nasdaq 100 amid mixed momentum and concerns over technology sector fragility. The current analysis continues to reinforce caution, with traders advised to closely monitor the $28,276 support and $28,829 resistance as decisive levels for the next directional move.

Source of Data: NDX Price Analysis by TU

The analysis is based on a proprietary model combining technical, on-chain, and expert data. Not investment advice. See methodology

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