Nasdaq 100 forecast: Index faces downward pressure as 27,527 support draws focus

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Nasdaq 100 drops 2.54% to 27,716

Highlights

NDX/USD trades below key moving averages on short-, medium-, and long-term timeframes, signifying ongoing seller pressure.
Momentum signals are mixed, with some intraday indicators showing buyer activity but most trending indicators pointing to a strong sell bias.
NDX/USD is forecast to remain rangebound between 27,527 and 28,608 over the next 2 to 3 days, with a 76% probability of further downside.

Mixed technical signals as buyers persist despite bearish momentum

On the technical front, NDX/USD is trading below its MA-20 and MA-50 on the hourly chart as well as under the long-term MA-200. The Ichimoku Kijun level at 28,398 stands as immediate resistance. MACD signals a strong sell, while ADX indicates that buyers remain active. RSI, Stoch RSI, and CCI present neutral readings, with neither overbought nor oversold signals. Bull/Bear Power remains positive, and the Awesome Oscillator confirms intraday buyer strength, although the price is currently near today’s low at 27,716.

Downside favored as resistance caps short-term range

In the short term, NDX/USD is expected to stay in a range between 27,527 and 28,608 over the next 2–3 trading days. The forecast assigns a 24% probability to an upward move and a 76% probability to continued downside, suggesting that a rise is less likely in the near term. The baseline scenario is for the price to remain within this volatility band, with a bullish case emerging only if the index surpasses resistance at the Ichimoku Kijun (28,398), and a bearish case if it breaks below key support near 27,527.

Viktoras Karapetjanc, expert at Traders Union, notes the Nasdaq 100 is under pressure, trading below key moving averages and facing bearish momentum in the short term. He sees mostly neutral technical signals, with only buyer activity showing some positive tilt. Karapetjanc believes macro sentiment is cautious but sees no new major catalysts influencing the index. He favors a scenario where the price stays inside the 27,527–28,608 range unless strong resistance or support levels are broken. "If NDX pushes above 28,398, optimism could quickly return, but for now, I expect sideways movement with a slight downside bias."

Earlier, analysts noted that concerns over data center growth chipmaker weakness, and broader technology sector headwinds were weighing on the Nasdaq 100’s outlook. The current technical landscape reinforces this cautious stance, with volatility persisting and traders advised to closely monitor the 27,527 support level for potential downside risk in the near term.

Source of Data: NDX Price Analysis by TU

The analysis is based on a proprietary model combining technical, on-chain, and expert data. Not investment advice. See methodology

The information is based on forecasts and does not constitute investment advice or a guarantee of future results. Market conditions may change. See our Disclaimer and Editorial Integrity for details.