AST SpaceMobile stock drops more than 3% after regulatory win in Chile and U.S. Space Force deal fail to spark rally

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Ast spacemobile slides 3.05% today

Highlights

AST SpaceMobile secured a 30-year nationwide concession in Chile and signed a $1.3 billion deal with Firefly Aerospace for 36 rocket engines.
The company obtained a new contract with the U.S. Space Force and achieved technology milestones with AT&T and the successful launch of BlueBird satellites 11, 12, and 13.
Shares of AST SpaceMobile trade under sustained selling pressure near immediate support at $29.04, with momentum indicators signaling continued downside and an expected range of $23.41 to $35.11 for the next five days.

Contract wins and expanded launches offset by persistent bearish flows

AST SpaceMobile secured a 30-year nationwide concession in Chile, granting long-term regulatory approval to expand its mobile satellite services using the SpaceMobile constellation. The company announced a $1.3 billion agreement with Firefly Aerospace for 36 rocket engines, outlining plans to develop its own heavy-lift rocket for future BlueBird satellite launches beginning in late 2028. A new contract was obtained with the U.S. Space Force, alongside successful launches of BlueBird satellites 11, 12, and 13 and a technology milestone achieved with AT&T, expanding the network's reach, though price action has remained under broader selling pressure.

Anton Kharitonov, expert at Traders Union, is cautious on AST SpaceMobile as persistent selling overshadows recent operational wins. He highlights the stock’s clear downtrend, citing sustained weakness below all moving averages and negative momentum signals. Fundamental developments like new contracts and regulatory approval have failed to ignite investor confidence. Kharitonov stresses that high volatility combined with dominance by sellers points to elevated risk. "Traders should remain defensive — without a break above resistance, the risk of further downside can't be ignored," he warns.

Viktoras Karapetjanc, expert at Traders Union, sees underlying strength in AST SpaceMobile’s expanding regulatory footprint and major new partnerships. He believes the multi-year Chile concession and $1.3 billion Firefly agreement set the stage for long-term growth. Market pressure may persist, but Karapetjanc views current weakness as creating a forward-looking setup. He expects further milestones and contract wins to gradually restore investor sentiment. "Positive developments and international expansion suggest that the bullish structure remains intact for patient investors," he says.

Parshwa Turakhiya, analyst, notes the market is locked in a strong sell-off with clear technical pressure. Despite heavy downside, short-term oversold conditions are appearing on multiple indicators. Turakhiya sees possible exhaustion among sellers but cautions traders not to chase rebounds too early. He identifies a tight band between $29.04 and $34.65 as the key battleground for near-term direction. "This setup favors nimble strategies — I’d wait for a decisive break before taking sides," he advises.

Oversold signals deepen as technical barriers reinforce downtrend

AST SpaceMobile is trading sharply below its 20-day, 50-day, and 200-day moving averages ($41.31, $52.74, and $76.03). This setup signals persistent downward momentum in the short, medium, and long term. Resistance is established at $34.65, with immediate support identified at $29.04. Momentum indicators suggest a strong ongoing sell trend: both MACD and ADX remain firmly negative. The Relative Strength Index (RSI), Stochastic RSI, and Commodity Channel Index (CCI) each register in their oversold zones, pointing to selling exhaustion risk but not guaranteeing a price rebound. The Bull/Bear Power indicator shows sellers dominating on intraday momentum, and the Awesome Oscillator confirms persistent downside bias. The asset recently lost $0.92 or 3.05% for the session after an initial upside gap, closing near its intraday low amid high volatility at 19.32%. The trading tone is pressured toward session lows, reflecting dominant selling momentum.

Earlier, analysts noted that AST SpaceMobile was experiencing sustained bearish pressure despite announcing significant investments in proprietary rocket capabilities. The latest developments reinforce the prevailing downside scenario, with traders advised to monitor for a sustained break below immediate support as the key risk in the coming sessions.

Source of Data: ASTS Price Analysis by TU

The analysis is based on a proprietary model combining technical, on-chain, and expert data. Not investment advice. See methodology

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