Coffee climbs as President Trump suspends tariffs on Moroccan fertilizer imports

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Coffee jumps 3.5% today to $312

Highlights

President Trump’s suspension of tariffs on Moroccan fertilizer directly addresses domestic supply issues, aiming to secure U.S. food production.
The emergency move improves prospects for American agriculture and is expected to stabilize supply chains, including coffee.
KC/USD shows bullish momentum with robust technical signals and is forecast to trade between $290.6 and $327.92 over the next 2–3 days.

Agricultural outlook improves as policy shift eases fertilizer bottlenecks

President Trump has declared a food supply emergency and suspended tariffs on certain Moroccan fertilizer imports, according to Foxbusiness. This emergency measure aims to ensure that American farmers have reliable access to essential fertilizers, addressing ongoing supply chain disruptions and fortifying national food security. The policy shift directly improves the outlook for U.S. agricultural producers, which in turn could stabilize Coffee supply chains and help sustain demand.

Bullish momentum persists as support holds, but overbought signs emerge

On the technical side, KC/USD trades above its 20- and 50-period moving averages on the H4 chart, and remains above the 200-period moving average on the daily timeframe. The Ichimoku Kijun line at $286.54 acts as immediate support, while expected resistance is aligned with recent highs. Momentum indicators show both the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) and the Average Directional Index (ADX) in buy territory, signaling sustained upward pressure. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) reads 61.03, supporting a bullish bias, and the Stochastic RSI is in an oversold position, suggesting near-term buy conditions; however, Bull/Bear Power displays overbought levels and the Commodity Channel Index (CCI) remains neutral, while the Awesome Oscillator is also neutral, indicating a possible short-term pause or minor pullback within a broadly constructive trend.

Upward bias dominates as resistance test and volatility band guide risk

Looking ahead over the next two to three trading sessions, expected price action for KC is likely to remain within a volatility band of $290.6 to $327.92. There is a 61% probability of an upward move, making an advance toward or above resistance the most likely outcome. The baseline expectation is for price to fluctuate within its current sideways channel; a decisive bullish scenario would play out if KC breaks above resistance, while a drop below immediate support would signal a potential bearish turn.

Viktoras Karapetjanc, analyst at Traders Union, sees the combination of strong technical momentum and supportive macro policy as fueling upside in Coffee. He believes recent U.S. governmental action on fertilizer tariffs directly boosts agricultural confidence and supply stability. Technicals remain solid, with momentum and moving averages backing continued strength. Karapetjanc expects prices to test the upper end of the current range soon. "With bullish news and firm chart signals, I remain constructive on KC and see further gains likely if resistance is cleared."

Earlier, analysts noted that coffee futures exhibited strong short-term bullish momentum despite lingering longer-term technical resistance. The current environment not only reinforces this positive bias with continued technical strength but also benefits from policy shifts supporting supply chains, making a sustained break above recent resistance a key scenario for traders to monitor.

Source of Data: KC Price Analysis by TU

The analysis is based on a proprietary model combining technical, on-chain, and expert data. Not investment advice. See methodology

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