Coffee price forecast: Sellers defend $304.96 support as KC loses ground

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Coffee drops 1.89% to $308.62 today

Highlights

KC/USD shows short- and medium-term bullish momentum but remains constrained by long-term resistance, preventing sustained trend continuation.
Momentum indicators are strongly bullish, but oscillators present mixed signals with overbought and neutral readings, reflecting investor indecision.
Two to three day trading range is projected between $298.05 and $319.19, with 70% probability favoring an upside move unless price falls below $304.96 support.

Bullish signals diverge as oscillators flash mixed momentum

On the technical front, KC is trading above both the 20-period and 50-period moving averages on the working timeframe, but remains just under the 200-period moving average. The key Ichimoku Kijun support on the daily chart is at $304.96. The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) and the Average Directional Index (ADX) both register a Buy signal, while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) also indicates buying momentum. In contrast, the Stochastic RSI is oversold, Commodity Channel Index (CCI) sits at Neutral, and Bull/Bear Power shows intraday overbought conditions, highlighting buyer dominance. The Awesome Oscillator is neutral. This mix points to a divergence between strong short-term momentum and mixed oscillator readings.

Breakout risk rises as price approaches key technical thresholds

Looking ahead to the next 2–3 trading days, the expected price range is $298.05 to $319.19, with a 70% probability of an upward move. The baseline scenario anticipates continued trading within this range. If KC decisively breaks above resistance, a move toward higher levels may follow; if price falls below the daily Ichimoku Kijun at $304.96, this would activate a bearish scenario.

Anton Kharitonov, expert at Traders Union, notes that Coffee is trading above short- and medium-term moving averages but is still capped under the 200-period moving average. Oscillator readings are mixed, highlighting a split between short-term buying momentum and lingering technical caution. The analyst sees a possible upward move but remains defensive given resistance and lack of new catalysts. "Until Coffee clears the 200-period average and holds above $304.96, I remain cautious on the upside," Kharitonov says.

Earlier, analysts noted that coffee futures were underpinned by sustained short-term bullish momentum, supported by favorable policy shifts and technical strength. The current setup reinforces this positive bias, but traders should be mindful of potential volatility around the $304.96 daily Ichimoku Kijun support, as a break below this level could shift momentum to the downside.

Source of Data: KC Price Analysis by TU

The analysis is based on a proprietary model combining technical, on-chain, and expert data. Not investment advice. See methodology

The information is based on forecasts and does not constitute investment advice or a guarantee of future results. Market conditions may change. See our Disclaimer and Editorial Integrity for details.