Silver price forecast: $57.68–$61.86 range in focus as XAG trades up

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Silver jumps 1.13% to $59.77 today

Highlights

Stalled US-Iran talks and unresolved shipping issues in Doha are fueling fears of energy supply disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz.
Geopolitical tensions and potential inflation risk could prompt the Fed to maintain higher rates, shaping sensitivity in precious metals markets.
Silver trades with short- and medium-term bullish momentum, with a projected range of $57.68 to $61.86 and high probability of upside continuation.

Risk sentiment shifts as Hormuz tensions and Fed outlook collide

Technical discussions between the United States and Iran in Doha ended without progress on either a shipping agreement or a broader ceasefire, amplifying worries about potential disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz, a key energy transit corridor, according to Livemint. This stalemate has spurred concerns over renewed inflation, contributing to shifts in risk sentiment and supporting safe-haven interest in Silver. At the same time, Economictimes Indiatimes noted that heightened oil-related risks may prompt the Federal Reserve to sustain higher interest rates should inflation persist, introducing competing downward price pressures. The net effect is ongoing sensitivity in precious metals markets to evolving geopolitical and macroeconomic dynamics.

Overbought signals persist as intraday buyers dominate above support

Technically, XAG/USD is positioned above the 20- and 50-period moving averages on the H4 chart, while remaining considerably below the 200-period moving average. The Ichimoku Kijun at $59.05 forms immediate support. Both the Relative Strength Index (RSI) and the Commodity Channel Index (CCI) signal overbought conditions, while the Average Directional Index (ADX) and Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) continue to indicate strong upward momentum. Bull/Bear Power confirms buyers' predominance in the intraday action, and the Awesome Oscillator aligns with the ongoing upward trend.

Sideways consolidation expected amid breakout and correction risks

Looking ahead, XAG/USD is likely to remain within a typical volatility band between $57.68 and $61.86 over the next several days. The baseline outlook is for the price to consolidate in a sideways range. Should Silver break above the upper range, it would confirm sustained buyer control, while a drop below $59.05 could set the stage for a sharper short-term correction.

Anton Kharitonov, expert at Traders Union, sees Silver caught between geopolitical support and the threat of higher interest rates. He notes technical momentum is strong, but also highlights that overbought conditions limit further upside without new catalysts. The base case is for consolidation unless $59.05 fails, which could trigger a deeper pullback. "Unless Silver holds above immediate support, any rallies should be treated with caution in this macro environment."

Earlier, analysts noted that silver was experiencing heightened volatility and cautious sentiment due to shifts in monetary policy expectations and external geopolitical risks. With the latest geopolitical standoff intensifying inflation concerns and reinforcing safe-haven demand, traders should closely monitor for a decisive breakout above $61.86 as a signal of sustained bullish momentum.

Source of Data: XAG Price Analysis by TU

The analysis is based on a proprietary model combining technical, on-chain, and expert data. Not investment advice. See methodology

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