Soybeans price stays under pressure as USDA confirms Chinese purchases

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Soybeans slip 0.51% today to $1,189

Highlights

China's confirmed soybean purchases signal ongoing export demand and support for global consumption expectations.
National average cash prices reached $11.45 1/4, with rising open interest reflecting increased market participation and hedging.
Soybean futures face short-term bearish momentum below key moving averages, with prices projected to range between $1,172 and $1,206 in coming days.

Renewed export demand and rising participation as China purchases confirmed

The recent confirmation of soybean purchases by China, reported by the USDA on July 8, highlights ongoing export demand from a major importer and suggests continued support for underlying consumption levels. Additional data from Barchart showed that the national average cash price reached $11.45 1/4 on Wednesday, providing insight into realized demand in the physical market. Open interest also increased by 19,506 contracts earlier in the week, according to Barchart, pointing to an uptick in market participation and hedging activity that may contribute to broader liquidity.

Bearish technical momentum dominates as intraday resistance caps advance

ZS trades below its 20-period and 50-period moving averages on the H1 timeframe, while remaining above the longer-term 200-period moving average at $1,131. The Ichimoku Kijun level at $1,196 serves as immediate overhead resistance. On the indicator front, both the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) and Awesome Oscillator signal downside momentum, while the Average Directional Index (ADX) indicates a neutral trend. Relative Strength Index (RSI), Stochastic RSI, and Commodity Channel Index (CCI) readings are in either sell or neutral territory — with CCI confirming a sell bias — and Bull/Bear Power (BBP) suggesting sellers dominate intraday action. A minor divergence is apparent as the Stochastic RSI remains neutral, in contrast to other bearish oscillators, reflecting broad seller control amid low volatility.

Balanced range outlook persists as volatility boundaries hold

Over the coming two to three trading days, ZS is expected to remain within a volatility band defined by $1,172 on the downside and $1,206 on the upside. The probability for an upward move is calculated at 53%, with a 47% likelihood for downside, indicating a modestly balanced outlook. Continued range trading is the baseline scenario unless price decisively breaks above the $1,196 resistance or slips below near-term support, which would open the door to testing the respective boundaries of the projected range.

Viktoras Karapetjanc, analyst at Traders Union, sees resilient demand for soybeans thanks to confirmed Chinese purchases and steady cash market flows. He points out that increased open interest signals active participation and healthy liquidity, even as technical signals reflect short-term downside. Karapetjanc views the current range as a constructive setup with limited volatility risk. He expects prices to stay within support at $1,172 and resistance at $1,206 in the near term. "Export demand is a clear positive, and further consolidation could set the stage for a stronger move if resistance gets cleared," he says.

Earlier, analysts noted that soybeans were maintaining a bullish technical posture amid resilient demand and optimism for further gains. The current shift below key moving averages and emergence of downside signals suggests traders should monitor for a potential retest of support near $1,172 if sellers remain in control.

Source of Data: ZS Price Analysis by TU

The analysis is based on a proprietary model combining technical, on-chain, and expert data. Not investment advice. See methodology

The information is based on forecasts and does not constitute investment advice or a guarantee of future results. Market conditions may change. See our Disclaimer and Editorial Integrity for details.