Copper price forecast: $6.136 resistance in focus as HG trades flat

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Copper up 0.12% today at $6.13

Highlights

Copper prices are pressured as the Federal Reserve's hawkish policy and a stronger US dollar dampen industrial metals demand.
Cautious sentiment persists among market participants, with opportunity costs for holding commodities rising in the current macro environment.
Copper trades with strong bullish technical momentum, likely to consolidate between $6.0297 and $6.2311, facing resistance at $6.136.

Fed policy and firm dollar dampen global industrial metals demand

Copper prices have declined as the Federal Reserve's hawkish stance and a stronger US dollar continue to weigh on sentiment toward industrial metals, according to Bloomberg. This policy approach typically raises the opportunity cost for holding commodities and makes dollar-denominated assets less attractive for international buyers, putting pressure on demand. As a result, underlying sentiment has remained cautious in the industrial metals space.

Momentum signals strong but mixed oscillators flag divergence risks

On the technical front, HG is trading above the MA-20 and MA-50 on the hourly chart, as well as above the long-term MA-200, signaling alignment across trend horizons. The Ichimoku Kijun level currently sits at $6.136 and acts as immediate resistance. MACD is in Strong Buy mode, and the Average Directional Index (ADX) also points to buyer control. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is at 52, which is considered a buy signal, while Bull/Bear Power (BBP) leans bullish. However, there are mixed signals from oscillators: Stochastic RSI is flashing sell, Commodity Channel Index (CCI) is neutral, and the Awesome Oscillator is also neutral, highlighting some divergence between momentum and oscillators.

Upside favored barring drop below lower support band

Over the next two to three trading days, HG is expected to move within a band from $6.03 to $6.23, consistent with typical volatility relative to current levels. There is a very high probability of upward movement, with a low likelihood of a downside breakout. The base scenario would see price consolidating inside this channel, a bullish setup would be triggered by a sustained move above the $6.136 resistance zone, while a bearish scenario could emerge only if price falls below $6.03.

Viktoras Karapetjanc, expert at Traders Union, sees copper staying resilient despite macro headwinds. He notes that positive technical momentum continues above all major moving averages, while strong US dollar dynamics cap upside sentiment. Karapetjanc believes fundamental and sentiment drivers remain in modest tension here, but the setup is constructive for bullish traders. "If $6.03 holds as support, I expect further gains with eyes on a potential sustained breakout above $6.136," he says.

Previously it was reported that copper exploration efforts in Africa remain active, with companies like Arc Minerals advancing key projects despite sector-wide challenges. The current backdrop of cautious sentiment and technical consolidation means traders should closely monitor the $6.136 resistance and $6.03 support levels, as a breakout on either side could soon define near-term market direction.

Source of Data: HG Price Analysis by TU

The analysis is based on a proprietary model combining technical, on-chain, and expert data. Not investment advice. See methodology

The information is based on forecasts and does not constitute investment advice or a guarantee of future results. Market conditions may change. See our Disclaimer and Editorial Integrity for details.