$6.1444 resistance keeps Copper rangebound

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Copper gains 0.57% today on tariff risks

Highlights

Uncertainty over possible new U.S. import tariffs on refined copper is fueling volatility and risk in supply chains.
A sharp drop in May copper production from Chile is worsening global supply concerns and amplifying market sensitivity.
Copper trades in a projected $5.9918–$6.2782 range, with momentum biased bearish and a higher probability of a downward move.

Tariff threats and Chile supply drop heighten market volatility

Ongoing uncertainty regarding the potential imposition of new U.S. import tariffs on refined copper has been a key driver of volatility, as investors closely monitor pending decisions by the Commerce Department, according to Interactivecrypto. This regulatory overhang creates unpredictability in supply chains, potentially limiting access to overseas copper for U.S. buyers and contributing to fluctuating market sentiment. Meanwhile, data highlighted by Interactivecrypto reveals a significant decline in copper production from Chile in May, directly intensifying global supply concerns. These supply-side developments, alongside additional tariff-related threats noted by In Investing, have combined to heighten volatility and amplify the market's sensitivity to new regulatory signals.

Mixed technical signals weigh against multi-timeframe price strength

Technically, the nearest resistance sits at the Ichimoku Kijun line at $6.1444. Copper is trading above its 20- and 50-period moving averages on the H4 timeframe, and also remains above the 200-period average, reflecting strength across multiple time horizons. On the momentum side, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) is on a sell signal and the Average Directional Index (ADX) is neutral. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) and Commodity Channel Index (CCI) are both indicating sell conditions, while Stochastic RSI points to oversold territory. Bull/Bear Power gives a buy reading, signaling some near-term buyer activity, but the Awesome Oscillator remains on sell, resulting in mixed signals and an indecisive technical backdrop.

Range-bound trade likely as volatility caps directional potential

Over the coming sessions, the expected trading range for Copper is between $5.9918 and $6.2782, with volatility anticipated to remain moderate. The base case scenario is for price to continue oscillating within this band. A bullish scenario would require a clear break above the $6.1444 resistance, which could open the way for additional gains. On the downside, a break below support increases the probability of a move toward the lower boundary of the current range.

Viktoras Karapetjanc, Senior Analyst at Traders Union, sees copper supported by a combination of regulatory uncertainty and supply-side stress. He views the recent tariff speculation and Chilean supply decline as key macro factors elevating volatility. Despite mixed technicals, Karapetjanc believes the structural drivers remain constructive for the metal. He remains attentive to regulatory headlines shaping sentiment. "If U.S. policy shifts or Chilean supply issues persist, copper could see renewed momentum toward resistance," he says.

Earlier, analysts noted that copper faced heightened downside risks, with technical signals painting a mixed and cautious outlook amid sector volatility and policy-driven uncertainties. The current environment not only reinforces this caution but introduces new supply-side pressures and regulatory threats, making a potential break above $6.1444 a critical trigger for any shift in market sentiment.

Source of Data: HG Price Analysis by TU

The analysis is based on a proprietary model combining technical, on-chain, and expert data. Not investment advice. See methodology

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