Copper trades down amid price slipping below key short-term averages

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Copper drops 1.61% to $6.08 today

Highlights

Glencore has halted its Philippine copper smelter, instantly tightening regional and global refined copper supply.
A A$600 million bailout from Australian governments highlights severe ongoing financial pressures and sector-wide supply chain risks.
Copper trades below key short-term averages with technical indicators signaling ongoing downside risk and an expected price range of $6.0099–$6.1702.

Regional processing cut and bailout heighten global copper supply risks

Glencore has shut down its Philippine smelter, a development that has immediately removed regional refining capacity and contributed to a tighter global supply of refined copper, according to Mining. This reduction in processing activity occurs while the company relies on byproduct revenues and emergency measures to sustain broader operations. Glencore also secured a A$600 million bailout from Australian federal and state governments to maintain its Australian processing units, reflecting ongoing financial stress across the sector and underscoring persistent supply chain risks.

Intraday selling pressure intensifies as trend strength persists

HG is trading below its MA-20 ($6.136) and MA-50 ($6.1369) on the hourly chart, while remaining above its MA-200 ($5.8749) on the daily timeframe. Immediate resistance is marked by the Ichimoku Kijun at $6.1484. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is at 45.74 and the Commodity Channel Index (CCI) continues to show a sell bias, with the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) reflecting selling pressure. The Awesome Oscillator is neutral, Stochastic RSI is also neutral, and Bull/Bear Power indicates sellers control the intraday session. The Average Directional Index (ADX) stays in buy mode, signaling underlying trend strength despite short-term selling pressure.

Downside risk persists as volatility dominates price outlook

Over the next 2 to 3 trading days, Copper is expected to fluctuate between $6.0099 and $6.1702, reflecting moderate volatility relative to current levels. There is a 71% probability of further downside risk, while the case for an upward move has a 29% probability. The price is likely to remain within the outlined range unless $6.1484 resistance is breached on the upside or the lower boundary breaks, confirming a bearish scenario.

Anton Kharitonov, expert at Traders Union, sees Copper pressured by recent supply disruptions, but technical signals remain bearish in the short term. He highlights that Glencore's smelter shutdown and sector bailouts underscore lingering risks to supply, yet sellers currently dominate the price action. Kharitonov maintains a cautious view given persistent selling signals and resistance at $6.1484. "Unless copper breaks above immediate resistance, I expect short-term downside to persist as supply risks are not yet triggering bullish momentum."

Previously it was reported that delays in sector IPOs and cautious investor sentiment reflected persistent volatility and uncertainty in the copper market. The current backdrop of supply-side constraints and strengthening downside risk suggests traders should watch for a potential break below $6.0099, which could accelerate bearish momentum in the near term.

Source of Data: HG Price Analysis by TU

The analysis is based on a proprietary model combining technical, on-chain, and expert data. Not investment advice. See methodology

The information is based on forecasts and does not constitute investment advice or a guarantee of future results. Market conditions may change. See our Disclaimer and Editorial Integrity for details.