Copper gains as Middle East strikes disrupt transit routes

Traders Union
All News
Commodities
Copper rises 1.75% today to $6.21

Highlights

Easing U.S.-Iran tensions have reduced immediate copper supply disruption fears, providing short-term relief to global markets.
Recent Middle East strikes underscore ongoing risks to copper logistics through the Strait of Hormuz, keeping supply chain concerns elevated.
Copper maintains a bullish structure with moderate upside momentum, likely to consolidate between $6.0664 and $6.3572 in the near term.

Supply chain risk persists as US-Iran talks ease shortage fears

Diplomatic negotiations between the United States and Iran are currently reducing fears of immediate global copper supply disruptions, providing relief to the market by limiting the potential for short-term shortages. At the same time, recent strikes in the Middle East have highlighted the persistent logistical challenges facing copper transit through the Strait of Hormuz, elevating attention to supply chain risks, as reported by Brecorder. Meanwhile, high copper prices and ongoing U.S. tariff policy discussions have led key automotive and cable manufacturers in the United States and Europe to speed up their shift toward aluminium as a substitute, according to Economictimes Indiatimes.

Mixed momentum signals amid overbought conditions and bullish trend

On the H4 chart, HG is trading above the 20-period moving average at $6.1293 and the 50-period moving average at $6.0763, while remaining comfortably above the 200-period moving average at $5.8696 on the daily timeframe. Immediate support is defined by the Ichimoku Kijun at $6.1633. From a momentum perspective, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) issues a buy signal, whereas the Average Directional Index (ADX) remains neutral. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is at 54.6412 (Buy), the Commodity Channel Index (CCI) is flagged Overbought, and the Stochastic RSI signals Sell, illustrating divergence in overbought/oversold readings. Bull/Bear Power indicates buyer dominance, with the Awesome Oscillator confirming a bullish tone; however, the overbought status of both the CCI and Stochastic RSI warrants caution.

Consolidation likely as breakout risk looms on resistance test

Short-term, HG is expected to trade within a typical volatility band from $6.0664 to $6.3572 over the coming days. There is a 73% probability of an upward move, while the downside scenario is less likely at 27%. The baseline expectation is for copper to consolidate sideways within this range, but a bullish breakout above resistance could extend the rally. If prices slip below immediate support, a retracement towards the lower boundary near $6.0664 becomes more probable.

Viktoras Karapetjanc, analyst at Traders Union, sees copper remaining well-supported as U.S.-Iran diplomacy calms near-term supply fears. He notes that strong fundamentals and bullish sentiment are reinforced by price action staying above key moving averages. Attention remains on logistics risks and substitution trends amid tariff policy uncertainty, which could moderate demand. He is confident that market momentum favors the bulls in the current environment. "With risk appetite elevated and fundamental drivers intact, I expect HG to challenge upper resistance and maintain a constructive trajectory."

Earlier, analysts noted that copper prices were supported by broad stability above key technical levels but faced mixed signals regarding sustained momentum. The latest developments in global supply chains and shifting industrial demand dynamics now reinforce the need to monitor for signs of bullish continuation above resistance, as a breakout could prompt a recalibration of short-term risk and opportunity for traders.

Source of Data: HG Price Analysis by TU

The analysis is based on a proprietary model combining technical, on-chain, and expert data. Not investment advice. See methodology

This material may contain third-party opinions, none of the data and information on this webpage constitutes investment advice according to our Disclaimer. While we adhere to strict Editorial Integrity, this post may contain references to products from our partners.