What triggered Palladium price's latest price surge

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Palladium surges 5.00% to $1274.42 today

Highlights

Norilsk Nickel anticipates global palladium surpluses of 300,000 ounces in 2026 and 200,000 ounces in 2027, signaling oversupply risk.
US regulators opted against tariffs on Russian palladium imports, maintaining stable supply amid shifting demand fundamentals.
XPD/USD shows short-term upside above near-term support at $1,256, but medium- to long-term trend remains bearish with forecast range $1,237–$1,311.

Surplus outlook and US tariff relief reinforce bearish sentiment

Norilsk Nickel projected global palladium surpluses of 300,000 ounces in 2026 and 200,000 ounces in 2027, pointing to expectations of oversupply. United States regulators decided not to impose tariffs on Russian palladium imports, ensuring supply stability. High interest rates and increased adoption of battery electric vehicles continue to weigh on long-term demand for the metal.

Anton Kharitonov, expert at Traders Union, sees the recent 5.00% surge in palladium as a technical rebound within an entrenched bearish trend. He notes that the price remains capped below the 50- and 200-day moving averages, limiting bullish prospects. Fundamentals remain weak, with projected supply surpluses from Norilsk Nickel and no new regulatory headwinds to disrupt flows. Kharitonov emphasizes that most momentum indicators remain bearish, while oversold readings are yet to spark meaningful follow-through. "Rallies like this are likely to stall unless we see a clear technical breakout or a fundamental shift in the demand outlook," he says.

Viktoras Karapetjanc, expert at Traders Union, remains constructive on palladium’s short-term prospects. He highlights the regulatory clarity from U.S. authorities and stable supply as supportive for investor confidence. Karapetjanc points out the persistent upside pressure post-gap and the possibility of a bullish reversal if resistance at $1,276 is broken. He believes that market structure offers multiple setups for agile traders. "With technical resistance in sight and improved sentiment, further growth towards $1,311 cannot be ruled out," says Karapetjanc.

Intraday volatility climbs as sellers dominate below key averages

XPD/USD trades above its 20-day moving average at $1,256, but remains below the 50-day ($1,340) and 200-day ($1,573) moving averages, signaling short-term strength with medium- and long-term bearish pressure. The Ichimoku Kijun at $1,276 marks immediate resistance, with near-term support at $1,256. The broader technical picture remains skewed to the downside, consistent with the bearish longer-term trend setup. Momentum readings are mostly bearish, with the MACD and ADX both at sell levels. The RSI, CCI, and BBP all indicate oversold conditions, and BBP shows sellers continue to dominate intraday momentum. Stochastic RSI is at a buy signal, introducing some near-term divergence. The overall daily tone is confirmed by a neutral read on the Awesome Oscillator. The pair rallied $60.68 after an opening upside gap of $19.53, with price now near the high of today’s range and intraday volatility at 2.47%. Persistent upside pressure continues post-gap, though real-time momentum lags sharp price moves.

Earlier, analysts noted that palladium was entrenched in a bearish trend as persistent selling pressure dominated the market. While the latest rebound reflects near-term buying interest, the prevailing outlook remains cautious, with traders advised to monitor any sustained move above immediate resistance for signs of a durable trend shift.

Source of Data: XPD Price Analysis by TU

The analysis is based on a proprietary model combining technical, on-chain, and expert data. Not investment advice. See methodology

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