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Mark Sobel discusses the relationship between China's current account surplus, its growth model, and macroeconomic policy.
He suggests that both he and Gita believe the large surplus is linked to a mistaken growth strategy and macro approach, as well as the significant undervaluation of the RMB. Sobel argues that reforming this model is essential and would result in a stronger RMB.
Sobel previously observed that the U.S. Treasury's latest FX report did not label China a currency manipulator and commented on the country's transparency policy in recent coverage. He has also discussed how exchange rates remain important in shaping China’s growth model, even if not the primary driver, as noted in earlier analysis. These remarks provide context for his current focus on reforms and currency valuation.