Brent crude oil price falls over 3% as last week’s rally unwinds and geopolitical risk eases

Traders Union
All News
Commodities
Brent crude slides 3.08% today

Highlights

Brent crude faces renewed geopolitical risk after Iran targeted shipping and U.S. military sites amid ceasefire collapse.
Heightened risk of supply disruption near the Hormuz Strait has intensified investor concerns over regional stability and energy flows.
Brent crude trades below medium-term resistance with bearish momentum; expected five-day range is $72 to $81.59.

Supply disruption fears intensify as Iran targets tankers and US sites

Geopolitical tensions intensified in early July 2026 after Iran struck a tanker near the Hormuz Strait and Iranian forces targeted US military sites in Bahrain and Kuwait following the breakdown of a ceasefire as confirmed by President Trump. These developments heightened concerns over supply disruptions and drew renewed global attention to risk in the region. The events underscore Brent crude’s sensitivity to unfolding geopolitical conflicts.

Anton Kharitonov, expert at Traders Union, points to pronounced technical selling in Brent crude following the unwinding of last week's rally. He notes that momentum indicators like the MACD and ADX remain deep in sell territory, while resistance at $81.59 continues to cap upside attempts. Kharitonov is skeptical of a quick reversal given negative news flow and fading geopolitical risk premium. He also observes that overbought intraday signals clash with overall bearish momentum, exposing bulls to potential whipsaw. "Downside risk prevails as technical and sentiment signals align for sellers, and only a decisive close above $81.59 would alter my view."

Viktoras Karapetjanc, expert at Traders Union, sees macro factors supporting medium-term opportunities in Brent crude. He highlights that escalating supply risks from renewed Middle East tensions draw institutional attention and offer fresh catalysts. Karapetjanc notes that the bullish MA-50 versus MA-200 alignment preserves an underlying constructive structure. He expects the market to attract buying interest if resistance at $79.2 gives way. "Brent crude’s bullish structure remains intact — further growth is likely if buyers reclaim the upper end of the current trading band."

Short-term support holds amid sustained downside momentum and resistance

Brent crude is trading above its 20-day moving average at $75.62, but remains below the 50-day at $88.94 and the 200-day at $81.32, signaling short-term support but ongoing medium- and long-term pressure from sellers. The immediate resistance and support levels are defined at $79.2 and $76.76, as confirmed by longer-term trend resistance at the Ichimoku Kijun ($83.25) and the bullish alignment of the MA-50 versus MA-200. Momentum readings are negative, with the MACD giving a Strong Sell signal and the ADX remaining in sell territory, indicating sustained downside momentum. The RSI reads 49.33 (Sell), CCI is neutral at 48.95, while the Stochastic RSI at 100 signals overbought intraday conditions. Bull/Bear Power at 5.3 shows buyers still active intraday, though an overbought warning persists. Daily movement is bearish, with Brent crude down $2.44 or 3.08%, opening with a downside gap near the day's low. Intraday volatility stands at 3.18%, with pressure after the open aligning with most momentum indicators, though there is clear divergence from overbought signals.

Earlier, analysts noted that Brent crude’s outlook was dominated by heightened geopolitical tensions and volatile sentiment tied to potential supply disruptions. The latest technical and momentum signals reinforce the downside bias, making $76.76 an especially critical support level to monitor over the coming sessions.

Source of Data: XBR Price Analysis by TU

The analysis is based on a proprietary model combining technical, on-chain, and expert data. Not investment advice. See methodology

This material may contain third-party opinions, none of the data and information on this webpage constitutes investment advice according to our Disclaimer. While we adhere to strict Editorial Integrity, this post may contain references to products from our partners.