Higher oil prices lift gold price toward $4,623 resistance

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Gold gains 1.18% today to $4,125

Highlights

Gold extends its rally for a fourth session as escalating Iran tensions and surging oil prices drive safe-haven demand.
Rising oil prices have intensified inflation concerns, enhancing gold's appeal as a portfolio hedge amid global volatility.
Technical signals remain bullish short term, forecasting gold to trade between $4,097 and $4,153, with downside risk currently low.

Safe-haven demand rises amid geopolitical tensions and oil surge

Gold has maintained upward momentum for a fourth consecutive session, supported by heightened demand for safe-haven assets as geopolitical risks intensify due to escalating tensions in Iran and a surge in oil prices, according to Fxstreet. The current environment of risk-off sentiment is prompting investors to seek hedges against uncertainty, which has amplified interest in Gold. Persistently higher oil prices further contribute to inflation concerns, strengthening Gold's role as a portfolio diversifier against volatility.

Mixed momentum as technicals show buying bias with divergences

The hourly chart shows Gold trading above the MA-20 at $4,102 and the MA-50 at $4,061, but still below the long-term MA-200 at $4,623. The Ichimoku Kijun at $4,092 is acting as immediate support. Among indicators, MACD and ADX both show strong buy signals, while RSI is at 62.96, also indicating buy conditions. The Stoch RSI is in oversold territory, whereas CCI registers a neutral reading. Bull/Bear Power points to overbought conditions with buyers in control, and the Awesome Oscillator is neutral, reflecting some divergence among oscillators.

Sideways bias persists as upside breakout probability increases

For the next 2–3 sessions, price action is expected to fluctuate between $4,097 and $4,153, representing a typical volatility band relative to current levels. The probability of an upward move is very high, with limited likelihood of a meaningful reversal in the immediate term. The base outlook is for Gold to trade sideways within this range, while a breakout above resistance could trigger a further bullish extension. Alternatively, a sustained decline below the $4,092 support would be needed to shift the near-term scenario toward a bearish bias.

Anton Kharitonov, expert at Traders Union, sees Gold’s continued strength as a sign of elevated safe-haven demand amid persistent geopolitical and inflation risks. He notes most technicals confirm a bullish structure above immediate support, but spots some divergence among oscillators. The analyst remains cautious, watching the $4,092 support and resistance near $4,153 as key levels for direction. "Base case is for range trading, but if $4,092 gives way, I will shift to a defensive stance."

Previously it was reported that Kalshi is seeking regulatory approval to expand around-the-clock derivatives trading with new perpetual futures tied to gold and other precious metals, underscoring rising demand for continuous access to leveraged gold exposure. As gold continues to benefit from safe-haven flows amid intensifying geopolitical risks, traders should watch for a breakout above $4,153 as a potential catalyst for further upside momentum.

Source of Data: XAU Price Analysis by TU

The analysis is based on a proprietary model combining technical, on-chain, and expert data. Not investment advice. See methodology

The information is based on forecasts and does not constitute investment advice or a guarantee of future results. Market conditions may change. See our Disclaimer and Editorial Integrity for details.